- λ home
- 2.14
- λ away
- 0.68
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 2–0 13.6%
Vegalta Sendai vs Imabari prediction & xG model: Vegalta Sendai to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Vegalta Sendai v Imabari: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipVegalta Sendai to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Vegalta Sendai v Imabari are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegalta Sendai (home) | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 2.25 |
| Imabari (away) | 1.22 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.30 × 1.24 ≈ 2.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.98 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.82 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.14, λaway = 0.68
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 71.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 13.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vegalta Sendai | 71.0% | 75.0% | 63.2% | 70.0% |
| X Draw | 18.5% | 19.0% | 22.1% | 20.3% |
| 2 Imabari | 10.4% | 6.0% | 14.7% | 9.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.131 → 13.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vegalta Sendai pick | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -2.0% | |
| X · Draw | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -18.8% | |
| 2 · Imabari | 9.7% | 10.34 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -42.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.3% | 1.11 | 1.11 | 90.1% | +0.3% | |
| X2 | 30.0% | 3.34 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -21.5% | |
| 12 | 79.7% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vegalta Sendai | 87.9% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Imabari | 12.1% | 8.24 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 4.39 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.3% | 3.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.7% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -4.7% | |
| BTTS no | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -11.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.6% | 8.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.700 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vegalta Sendai | Imabari |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWWD | DWWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Vegalta Sendai at 70%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Vegalta Sendai 6th on 30, Imabari 19th on 12.
Form
Sequence for Vegalta Sendai: D W W W W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Tokushima Vortis. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Imabari: D W W L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–3 at home to Vanraure Hachinohe. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vegalta Sendai 2.14 · Imabari 0.68 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Vegalta Sendai to win, probability 70%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.43. Most probable score: Vegalta Sendai 2–0 Imabari. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vegalta Sendai vs Imabari?
The Model pick is Vegalta Sendai to win with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vegalta Sendai v Imabari probabilities?
Vegalta Sendai win 70%, draw 20%, Imabari win 10%.
What is the most probable score for Vegalta Sendai vs Imabari?
Vegalta Sendai 2–0 Imabari is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vegalta Sendai vs Imabari?
Vegalta Sendai 2.14, Imabari 0.68 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Vegalta Sendai vs Imabari?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Yurtec Stadium Sendai – J2 League.