- λ home
- 1.71
- λ away
- 0.74
- Σλ total
- 2.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.7%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita prediction & xG model: Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTegevajaro Miyazaki to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (home) | 1.40 | 1.33 | 0.81 | 1.51 |
| Blaublitz Akita (away) | 1.22 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.33 × 0.81 ≈ 1.51
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.30 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.71, λaway = 0.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 53.2% | 73.0% | 45.6% | 61.5% |
| X Draw | 27.5% | 15.0% | 30.7% | 21.6% |
| 2 Blaublitz Akita | 19.3% | 12.0% | 23.7% | 16.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki pick | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +19.9% | |
| X · Draw | 21.6% | 4.63 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -37.4% | |
| 2 · Blaublitz Akita | 16.9% | 5.91 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -36.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +3.8% | |
| X2 | 38.5% | 2.60 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -34.5% | |
| 12 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 78.4% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Blaublitz Akita | 21.6% | 4.63 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +3.5% | |
| BTTS no | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -17.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.7% | 6.79 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.615 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.199 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.210 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Blaublitz Akita |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLDWW | LLWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2nd on 32, Blaublitz Akita 12th on 20.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki have two wins from their last six (D D L D W W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Jubilo Iwata. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Blaublitz Akita, last six: L L W D D W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Consadole Sapporo. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.71 · Blaublitz Akita 0.74 · total 2.45. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win, probability 61%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita?
The Model pick is Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita probabilities?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 61%, draw 22%, Blaublitz Akita win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.71, Blaublitz Akita 0.74 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Unilever Stadium Shintomi – J2 League.