- λ home
- 1.50
- λ away
- 1.36
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omiya Ardija (home) | 1.40 | 1.41 | 0.77 | 1.51 |
| Kataller Toyama (away) | 1.22 | 1.40 | 0.95 | 1.62 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.41 × 0.77 ≈ 1.51
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.13 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.86 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.50, λaway = 1.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Omiya Ardija | 35.4% | 44.0% | 42.6% | 43.4% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 16.0% | 24.9% | 19.7% |
| 2 Kataller Toyama | 39.9% | 40.0% | 32.5% | 36.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Omiya Ardija | 43.4% | 2.30 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -8.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.07 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -29.0% | |
| 2 · Kataller Toyama | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +1.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -11.6% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -6.6% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Omiya Ardija | 54.1% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kataller Toyama | 45.9% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -12.5% | |
| BTTS no | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +1.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.6% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.6% | 3.62 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.625 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.125 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDWD | DDWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 100% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Omiya Ardija 43%, draw 20%, Kataller Toyama 37%. Standings: Omiya Ardija 1st on 33, Kataller Toyama 4th on 31.
Form
Omiya Ardija, last six: L W L D W D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Sagan Tosu. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Kataller Toyama have two wins from their last six (D D W L D W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Shonan Bellmare. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Omiya Ardija 1.50 · Kataller Toyama 1.36 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Omiya Ardija 2–1 Kataller Toyama. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama probabilities?
Omiya Ardija win 43%, draw 20%, Kataller Toyama win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama?
Omiya Ardija 2–1 Kataller Toyama is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama?
Omiya Ardija 1.50, Kataller Toyama 1.36 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama?
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at NACK5 Stadium Omiya – J2 League.