- λ home
- 2.77
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 3.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 72%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–0 8.9%
Quick Boys vs Almere City II prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Quick Boys 74% · draw 16% · Almere City II 10%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Quick Boys v Almere City II: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Quick Boys v Almere City II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.83 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.72 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.77, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 74.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 8.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Quick Boys | – | 74.0% | 73.6% | 73.8% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| 2 Almere City II | – | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Quick Boys | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -10.6% | |
| X · Draw | 15.7% | 6.36 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -8.8% | |
| 2 · Almere City II | 10.4% | 9.60 | 8.10 | 12.3% | -15.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.6% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -11.1% | |
| 12 | 84.3% | 1.19 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -11.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Quick Boys | 87.6% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Almere City II | 12.4% | 8.09 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.0% | 9.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -9.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | 3.59 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -8.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -7.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -20.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 55.9% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.7% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.4% | 7.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.722 × 1.26 − 1 = -0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Quick Boys | Almere City II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | LWLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 3.17 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Quick Boys 74% to win. Standings: Quick Boys 1st on 31, Almere City II 13th on 13.
Form
Quick Boys, last six: W W W D W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Barendrecht. 3.2 goals a match in that spell.
Almere City II, last six: L W L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–5 at home to Kozakken Boys. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Quick Boys 2.77 · Almere City II 1.00 · total 3.77. Goals expected – 72% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.26 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: Quick Boys 2–1 Almere City II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tweede Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quick Boys | 12 | +25 | 31 |
| 2 |  Ijsselmeervogels | 12 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Kozakken Boys | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 |  HHC | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 5 |  De Treffers | 12 | +14 | 22 |
| 6 |  GVVV Veenendaal | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 |  RKAV Volendam | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 8 |  Barendrecht | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Spakenburg | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam II | 12 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  AFC Amsterdam | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Katwijk | 12 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 |  Almere City II | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Rijnsburgse Boys | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 15 |  Koninklijke HFC | 12 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Hoek | 12 | -9 | 10 |
| 17 |  Kloetinge | 12 | -16 | 7 |
| 18 |  ROHDA Raalte | 12 | -27 | 1 |
More Tweede Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Quick Boys vs Almere City II?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.26 by the bookmakers.
What are the Quick Boys v Almere City II probabilities?
Quick Boys win 74%, draw 16%, Almere City II win 10%.
What is the most probable score for Quick Boys vs Almere City II?
Quick Boys 2–1 Almere City II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Quick Boys vs Almere City II?
Quick Boys 2.77, Almere City II 1.00 – over 2.5 at 72%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Quick Boys vs Almere City II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Sportpark Nieuw Zuid – Tweede Divisie.