- λ home
- 1.74
- λ away
- 1.70
- Σλ total
- 3.44
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.5%
GVVV Veenendaal vs Spakenburg prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
GVVV Veenendaal v Spakenburg: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for GVVV Veenendaal v Spakenburg are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (20 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVVV Veenendaal (home) | 1.66 | 1.52 | 0.94 | 2.38 |
| Spakenburg (away) | 1.38 | 1.03 | 0.97 | 1.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.52 × 0.94 ≈ 2.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.76 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.42 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.44 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.74, λaway = 1.70
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 GVVV Veenendaal | 59.1% | 44.0% | 37.1% | 41.1% |
| X Draw | 19.8% | 16.0% | 24.5% | 19.6% |
| 2 Spakenburg | 21.1% | 40.0% | 38.4% | 39.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · GVVV Veenendaal | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -1.3% | |
| X · Draw | 19.6% | 5.11 | 3.64 | 27.5% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · Spakenburg | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -8.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -12.0% | |
| X2 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -16.4% | |
| 12 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB GVVV Veenendaal | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Spakenburg | 48.9% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.2% | 7.03 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -10.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -10.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -6.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -11.9% | |
| BTTS no | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -3.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.5% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.2% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.667 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.093 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | GVVV Veenendaal | Spakenburg |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWW | WLDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – GVVV Veenendaal 41%, draw 20%, Spakenburg 39%. Standings: GVVV Veenendaal 5th on 24, Spakenburg 10th on 17.
Form
GVVV Veenendaal have five wins from their last six (W W W L W W). Latest: 3–1 away at Katwijk. 2.7 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Spakenburg: W L D L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Kloetinge. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Spakenburg 3–2 GVVV Veenendaal. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG GVVV Veenendaal 1.74 · Spakenburg 1.70 · total 3.44. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: GVVV Veenendaal 2–1 Spakenburg. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 21 Feb 2026Spakenburg3–2GVVV Veenendaal
Tweede Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quick Boys | 13 | +26 | 34 |
| 2 |  Ijsselmeervogels | 13 | +10 | 28 |
| 3 |  Kozakken Boys | 13 | +18 | 27 |
| 4 |  HHC | 13 | +8 | 27 |
| 5 |  GVVV Veenendaal | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 6 |  De Treffers | 13 | +12 | 22 |
| 7 |  RKAV Volendam | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 8 |  Barendrecht | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  AFC Amsterdam | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 |  Spakenburg | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 |  Koninklijke HFC | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 |  Katwijk | 13 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam II | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 |  Almere City II | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Hoek | 13 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 |  Rijnsburgse Boys | 13 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 |  Kloetinge | 13 | -17 | 7 |
| 18 |  ROHDA Raalte | 13 | -27 | 2 |
More Tweede Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for GVVV Veenendaal vs Spakenburg?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the GVVV Veenendaal v Spakenburg probabilities?
GVVV Veenendaal win 41%, draw 20%, Spakenburg win 39%.
What is the most probable score for GVVV Veenendaal vs Spakenburg?
GVVV Veenendaal 2–1 Spakenburg is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for GVVV Veenendaal vs Spakenburg?
GVVV Veenendaal 1.74, Spakenburg 1.70 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is GVVV Veenendaal vs Spakenburg?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Sportpark Panhuis – Tweede Divisie.