- λ home
- 2.17
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 3.18
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Ijsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht prediction & xG model: Ijsselmeervogels to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ijsselmeervogels 63% · draw 21% · Barendrecht 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ijsselmeervogels v Barendrecht: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ijsselmeervogels v Barendrecht are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.88 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.42 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.18 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.17, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ijsselmeervogels | – | 67.0% | 57.8% | 63.2% |
| X Draw | – | 21.0% | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| 2 Barendrecht | – | 12.0% | 21.0% | 15.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ijsselmeervogels pick | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -2.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.74 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -11.4% | |
| 2 · Barendrecht | 15.8% | 6.34 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -33.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.2% | 1.19 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -4.8% | |
| X2 | 36.8% | 2.71 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -21.9% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -10.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ijsselmeervogels | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Barendrecht | 20.0% | 5.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.4% | 5.74 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -12.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -2.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -15.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.9% | 1.61 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.1% | 2.63 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -4.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.3% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.7% | 6.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.632 × 1.54 − 1 = -0.027 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ijsselmeervogels | Barendrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWL | LDWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Ijsselmeervogels 63% to win. Standings: Ijsselmeervogels 2nd on 25, Barendrecht 8th on 20.
Form
Sequence for Ijsselmeervogels: W W W L W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–0 away at Hoek. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Barendrecht: L D W W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Quick Boys. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ijsselmeervogels 2.17 · Barendrecht 1.01 · total 3.18. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Ijsselmeervogels to win, probability 63%, odds 1.54 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Ijsselmeervogels 2–1 Barendrecht. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tweede Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quick Boys | 12 | +25 | 31 |
| 2 |  Ijsselmeervogels | 12 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Kozakken Boys | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 |  HHC | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 5 |  De Treffers | 12 | +14 | 22 |
| 6 |  GVVV Veenendaal | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 |  RKAV Volendam | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 8 |  Barendrecht | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Spakenburg | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam II | 12 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  AFC Amsterdam | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Katwijk | 12 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 |  Almere City II | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Rijnsburgse Boys | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 15 |  Koninklijke HFC | 12 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Hoek | 12 | -9 | 10 |
| 17 |  Kloetinge | 12 | -16 | 7 |
| 18 |  ROHDA Raalte | 12 | -27 | 1 |
More Tweede Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ijsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht?
The Model pick is Ijsselmeervogels to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.54 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ijsselmeervogels v Barendrecht probabilities?
Ijsselmeervogels win 63%, draw 21%, Barendrecht win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Ijsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht?
Ijsselmeervogels 2–1 Barendrecht is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ijsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht?
Ijsselmeervogels 2.17, Barendrecht 1.01 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Ijsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Sportpark De Westmaat – Tweede Divisie.