- λ home
- 2.59
- λ away
- 1.49
- Σλ total
- 4.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 71%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.5%
Kozakken Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kozakken Boys v Sparta Rotterdam II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kozakken Boys v Sparta Rotterdam II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (18 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kozakken Boys (home) | 1.66 | 1.30 | 1.42 | 3.05 |
| Sparta Rotterdam II (away) | 1.38 | 1.39 | 0.71 | 1.36 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.30 × 1.42 ≈ 3.05
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.41 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.42 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.79 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.59, λaway = 1.49
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kozakken Boys | 70.9% | 64.0% | 58.7% | 61.8% |
| X Draw | 15.1% | 15.0% | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| 2 Sparta Rotterdam II | 13.9% | 21.0% | 21.2% | 21.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kozakken Boys | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -6.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.1% | 5.84 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -23.8% | |
| 2 · Sparta Rotterdam II | 21.1% | 4.74 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -11.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -10.8% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -17.4% | |
| 12 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kozakken Boys | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sparta Rotterdam II | 25.5% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 91.4% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 8.6% | 11.60 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -6.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -16.8% | |
| Over 3.5 pick | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -4.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -12.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -7.4% | |
| BTTS no | 29.4% | 3.41 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -12.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.3% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.6% | 3.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.1% | 4.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.048 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kozakken Boys | Sparta Rotterdam II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDWW | DDLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kozakken Boys at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Kozakken Boys 3rd on 27, Sparta Rotterdam II 13th on 14.
Form
Sequence for Kozakken Boys: W L L D W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 5–1 away at Almere City II. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Sparta Rotterdam II, last six: D D L L L W – one win in total. Latest: 5–5 at home to AFC Amsterdam. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kozakken Boys 2.59 · Sparta Rotterdam II 1.49 · total 4.08. High total: over 2.5 75%, BTTS 71%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Kozakken Boys 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tweede Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quick Boys | 13 | +26 | 34 |
| 2 |  Ijsselmeervogels | 13 | +10 | 28 |
| 3 |  Kozakken Boys | 13 | +18 | 27 |
| 4 |  HHC | 13 | +8 | 27 |
| 5 |  GVVV Veenendaal | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 6 |  De Treffers | 13 | +12 | 22 |
| 7 |  RKAV Volendam | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 8 |  Barendrecht | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  AFC Amsterdam | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 |  Spakenburg | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 |  Koninklijke HFC | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 |  Katwijk | 13 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam II | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 |  Almere City II | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Hoek | 13 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 |  Rijnsburgse Boys | 13 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 |  Kloetinge | 13 | -17 | 7 |
| 18 |  ROHDA Raalte | 13 | -27 | 2 |
More Tweede Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kozakken Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II?
The Model pick is Over 3.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kozakken Boys v Sparta Rotterdam II probabilities?
Kozakken Boys win 62%, draw 17%, Sparta Rotterdam II win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Kozakken Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II?
Kozakken Boys 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kozakken Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II?
Kozakken Boys 2.59, Sparta Rotterdam II 1.49 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 71%.
What time is Kozakken Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at De Zwaaier – Tweede Divisie.