- λ home
- 1.00
- λ away
- 2.00
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 0–1 10.0%
Vrchovina vs Hodonín prediction & xG model: Hodonín to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Vrchovina 21% · draw 15% · Hodonín 63%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Vrchovina v Hodonín: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Vrchovina v Hodonín are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.94 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.05 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.00, λaway = 2.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vrchovina | – | 18.0% | 25.5% | 21.1% |
| X Draw | – | 9.0% | 24.2% | 15.4% |
| 2 Hodonín | – | 73.0% | 50.3% | 63.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vrchovina | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -26.0% | |
| X · Draw | 15.4% | 6.50 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -43.4% | |
| 2 · Hodonín pick | 63.5% | 1.58 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +12.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.5% | 2.74 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -34.3% | |
| X2 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.4% | |
| 12 | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vrchovina | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hodonín | 75.0% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | 1.25 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.3% | 4.94 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -10.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -9.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -7.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -12.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -15.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.6% | 5.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.635 × 1.77 − 1 = +0.124 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.161 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vrchovina | Hodonín |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLL | WWLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Hodonín 63%, Vrchovina 21%. Standings: Vrchovina 15th on 17, Hodonín 6th on 23.
Form
Sequence for Vrchovina: L L W L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to Sigma Olomouc II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 3.0 conceded.
Hodonín have four wins from their last six (W W L L W W). Latest: 4–0 at home to Polanka nad Odrou. 2.5 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vrchovina 1.00 · Hodonín 2.00 · total 3.00. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Hodonín to win, probability 63%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Vrchovina 0–1 Hodonín. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Liga MSFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Frýdek-Místek | 16 | +15 | 33 |
| 2 |  Uničov | 16 | +12 | 33 |
| 3 |  Sigma Olomouc II | 16 | +17 | 31 |
| 4 |  Líšeň II | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 |  Zbrojovka Brno II | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Hodonín | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Unie Hlubina | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 8 |  Karviná II | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 9 |  Vítkovice | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 10 |  Hranice | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Slovácko II | 16 | +6 | 22 |
| 12 |  Uherský Brod | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Zlín II | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Blansko | 16 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 |  Vrchovina | 16 | -17 | 17 |
| 16 |  Havířov | 16 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 |  Polanka nad Odrou | 16 | -15 | 12 |
| 18 |  Vsetín | 16 | -24 | 10 |
More 3. Liga MSFL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vrchovina vs Hodonín?
The Model pick is Hodonín to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vrchovina v Hodonín probabilities?
Vrchovina win 21%, draw 15%, Hodonín win 63%.
What is the most probable score for Vrchovina vs Hodonín?
Vrchovina 0–1 Hodonín is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vrchovina vs Hodonín?
Vrchovina 1.00, Hodonín 2.00 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Vrchovina vs Hodonín?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadium Nove Mesto – 3. Liga MSFL.