- λ home
- 1.43
- λ away
- 1.45
- Σλ total
- 2.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.6%
Vsetín vs Hranice prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Vsetín 39% · draw 21% · Hranice 40%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Vsetín v Hranice: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Vsetín v Hranice are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.95 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.43, λaway = 1.45
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vsetín | – | 39.0% | 39.3% | 39.1% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.9% | 20.7% |
| 2 Hranice | – | 44.0% | 34.8% | 40.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vsetín | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -11.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -28.6% | |
| 2 · Hranice | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.56 | 39.1% | +2.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -18.0% | |
| X2 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vsetín | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hranice | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -9.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 4.63 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -9.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.11 | 47.4% | -6.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -12.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -14.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.0% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.625 × 1.51 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vsetín | Hranice |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLLW | LLLWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 21 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Vsetín 18th on 10, Hranice 10th on 23.
Form
Sequence for Vsetín: L L L L L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Karviná II. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Hranice, last six: L L L W W D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–4 at home to Zbrojovka Brno II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Hranice 0–2 Vsetín. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vsetín 1.43 · Hranice 1.45 · total 2.89. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.51 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Vsetín 1–2 Hranice. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Apr 2026Hranice0–2Vsetín
3. Liga MSFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Frýdek-Místek | 16 | +15 | 33 |
| 2 |  Uničov | 16 | +12 | 33 |
| 3 |  Sigma Olomouc II | 16 | +17 | 31 |
| 4 |  Líšeň II | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 |  Zbrojovka Brno II | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Hodonín | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Unie Hlubina | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 8 |  Karviná II | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 9 |  Vítkovice | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 10 |  Hranice | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Slovácko II | 16 | +6 | 22 |
| 12 |  Uherský Brod | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Zlín II | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Blansko | 16 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 |  Vrchovina | 16 | -17 | 17 |
| 16 |  Havířov | 16 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 |  Polanka nad Odrou | 16 | -15 | 12 |
| 18 |  Vsetín | 16 | -24 | 10 |
More 3. Liga MSFL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vsetín vs Hranice?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.51 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vsetín v Hranice probabilities?
Vsetín win 39%, draw 21%, Hranice win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Vsetín vs Hranice?
Vsetín 1–2 Hranice is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vsetín vs Hranice?
Vsetín 1.43, Hranice 1.45 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Vsetín vs Hranice?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Football pitch Lhota u Vsetina – 3. Liga MSFL.