- λ home
- 1.78
- λ away
- 1.78
- Σλ total
- 3.56
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 70%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.0%
Unie Hlubina vs Karviná II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Unie Hlubina v Karviná II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Unie Hlubina v Karviná II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unie Hlubina (home) | 1.71 | 1.22 | 0.99 | 2.06 |
| Karviná II (away) | 1.49 | 1.07 | 1.19 | 1.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.71 × 1.22 × 0.99 ≈ 2.06
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.95 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.69 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.45 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.56 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.78, λaway = 1.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Unie Hlubina | 42.4% | 37.0% | 44.8% | 40.3% |
| X Draw | 21.4% | 16.0% | 24.0% | 19.3% |
| 2 Karviná II | 36.2% | 47.0% | 31.3% | 40.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Unie Hlubina | 40.3% | 2.48 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -19.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.17 | 3.72 | 26.9% | -28.1% | |
| 2 · Karviná II | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2.85 | 35.1% | +15.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -22.5% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.2% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Unie Hlubina | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Karviná II | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.3% | 7.01 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -17.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -12.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.3% | 2.11 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -7.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -8.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 70.2% | 1.43 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 29.8% | 3.35 | 2.79 | 35.8% | -16.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.8% | 2.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.1% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.702 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Unie Hlubina | Karviná II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWWLL | WWWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 19 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Unie Hlubina 10th on 23, Karviná II 7th on 26.
Form
Unie Hlubina, last six: D D W W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Vítkovice. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Karviná II, last six: W W W L W L – four wins in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Vsetín. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Unie Hlubina 1.78 · Karviná II 1.78 · total 3.56. High total: over 2.5 68%, BTTS 70%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 70%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.43. Most probable score: Unie Hlubina 1–2 Karviná II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Liga MSFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Frýdek-Místek | 17 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Uničov | 17 | +15 | 36 |
| 3 |  Sigma Olomouc II | 17 | +19 | 34 |
| 4 |  Líšeň II | 17 | +12 | 30 |
| 5 |  Zbrojovka Brno II | 17 | +7 | 30 |
| 6 |  Hodonín | 17 | +9 | 26 |
| 7 |  Karviná II | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  Slovácko II | 17 | +9 | 25 |
| 9 |  Uherský Brod | 17 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 |  Unie Hlubina | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Vítkovice | 17 | -1 | 23 |
| 12 |  Hranice | 17 | -3 | 23 |
| 13 |  Zlín II | 17 | -9 | 19 |
| 14 |  Blansko | 16 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 |  Vrchovina | 17 | -19 | 17 |
| 16 |  Vsetín | 17 | -23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Havířov | 16 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 |  Polanka nad Odrou | 17 | -18 | 12 |
More 3. Liga MSFL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Unie Hlubina vs Karviná II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Unie Hlubina v Karviná II probabilities?
Unie Hlubina win 40%, draw 19%, Karviná II win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Unie Hlubina vs Karviná II?
Unie Hlubina 1–2 Karviná II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Unie Hlubina vs Karviná II?
Unie Hlubina 1.78, Karviná II 1.78 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 70%.
What time is Unie Hlubina vs Karviná II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadion Hlubina – 3. Liga MSFL.