- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 1.96
- Σλ total
- 3.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Uherský Brod vs Líšeň II prediction & xG model: Líšeň II to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Uherský Brod v Líšeň II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipLíšeň II to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Uherský Brod v Líšeň II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uherský Brod (home) | 1.71 | 1.08 | 0.79 | 1.46 |
| Líšeň II (away) | 1.49 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.69 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.71 × 1.08 × 0.79 ≈ 1.46
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.15 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.94 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.18 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 1.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 57.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Uherský Brod | 32.9% | 21.0% | 26.2% | 23.2% |
| X Draw | 24.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 17.5% |
| 2 Líšeň II | 42.6% | 66.0% | 50.0% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Uherský Brod | 23.2% | 4.31 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -21.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.71 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -34.3% | |
| 2 · Líšeň II pick | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.78 | 56.2% | +5.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.7% | 2.46 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -27.1% | |
| X2 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -7.1% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Uherský Brod | 28.1% | 3.56 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Líšeň II | 71.9% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -9.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 5.24 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -10.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | 2.52 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -13.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -7.2% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.71 | 2.39 | 41.8% | -11.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.7% | 5.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.593 × 1.78 − 1 = +0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.071 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Uherský Brod | Líšeň II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWLD | DLLWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 23%. Standings: Uherský Brod 9th on 24, Líšeň II 4th on 30.
Form
Uherský Brod, last six: L L W W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Blansko. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for Líšeň II: D L L W D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 4–4 at home to Uničov. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Uherský Brod 1.11 · Líšeň II 1.96 · total 3.07. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Líšeň II to win, probability 59%, odds 1.78 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Uherský Brod 1–2 Líšeň II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Liga MSFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Frýdek-Místek | 17 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Uničov | 17 | +15 | 36 |
| 3 |  Sigma Olomouc II | 17 | +19 | 34 |
| 4 |  Líšeň II | 17 | +12 | 30 |
| 5 |  Zbrojovka Brno II | 17 | +7 | 30 |
| 6 |  Hodonín | 17 | +9 | 26 |
| 7 |  Karviná II | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  Slovácko II | 17 | +9 | 25 |
| 9 |  Uherský Brod | 17 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 |  Unie Hlubina | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Vítkovice | 17 | -1 | 23 |
| 12 |  Hranice | 17 | -3 | 23 |
| 13 |  Zlín II | 17 | -9 | 19 |
| 14 |  Blansko | 16 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 |  Vrchovina | 17 | -19 | 17 |
| 16 |  Vsetín | 17 | -23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Havířov | 16 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 |  Polanka nad Odrou | 17 | -18 | 12 |
More 3. Liga MSFL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Uherský Brod vs Líšeň II?
The Model pick is Líšeň II to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.78 by the bookmakers.
What are the Uherský Brod v Líšeň II probabilities?
Uherský Brod win 23%, draw 18%, Líšeň II win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Uherský Brod vs Líšeň II?
Uherský Brod 1–2 Líšeň II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Uherský Brod vs Líšeň II?
Uherský Brod 1.11, Líšeň II 1.96 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Uherský Brod vs Líšeň II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Orelsky stadion – 3. Liga MSFL.