- λ home
- 0.86
- λ away
- 1.77
- Σλ total
- 2.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.8%
Ballymena United vs Linfield prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ballymena United v Linfield: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ballymena United v Linfield are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.74 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.86, λaway = 1.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ballymena United | – | 23.0% | 16.9% | 20.4% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 23.2% | 18.4% |
| 2 Linfield | – | 62.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ballymena United | 20.4% | 4.90 | 5.30 | 18.9% | +8.2% | |
| X · Draw | 18.4% | 5.43 | 3.86 | 25.9% | -28.9% | |
| 2 · Linfield | 61.2% | 1.64 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -8.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 38.8% | 2.57 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -13.0% | |
| X2 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -14.1% | |
| 12 | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ballymena United | 25.0% | 3.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Linfield | 75.0% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -8.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -10.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -15.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -7.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.9% | 2.01 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -8.2% | |
| BTTS no | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -8.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.6% | 6.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.4% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.9% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.740 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.097 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ballymena United | Linfield |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWWLW | WDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Linfield 61%, Ballymena United 20%. Standings: Ballymena United 9th on 16, Linfield 1st on 36.
Form
Ballymena United have three wins from their last six (D L W W L W). Latest: 1–1 away at Portadown. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Linfield, last six: W D W W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Coleraine FC. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Linfield 0–3 Ballymena United. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ballymena United 0.86 · Linfield 1.77 · total 2.63. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 74%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.35. Most probable score: Ballymena United 0–2 Linfield. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 8 Aug 2026Linfield0–3Ballymena United
Premiership table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Linfield | 15 | +13 | 36 |
| 2 |  Coleraine FC | 15 | +16 | 35 |
| 3 |  Larne | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 4 |  Glentoran | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cliftonville FC | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 |  Carrick Rangers | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Dungannon Swifts | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 |  Crusaders FC | 15 | -10 | 18 |
| 9 |  Ballymena United | 13 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Limavady United | 15 | -10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Bangor | 15 | -13 | 12 |
| 12 |  Portadown | 15 | -13 | 9 |
More Premiership predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ballymena United vs Linfield?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 74, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ballymena United v Linfield probabilities?
Ballymena United win 20%, draw 18%, Linfield win 61%.
What is the most probable score for Ballymena United vs Linfield?
Ballymena United 0–2 Linfield is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ballymena United vs Linfield?
Ballymena United 0.86, Linfield 1.77 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Ballymena United vs Linfield?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Ballymena Showgrounds – Premiership.