- λ home
- 2.24
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 3.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.6%
Coleraine FC vs Portadown prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Coleraine FC v Portadown: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Coleraine FC v Portadown are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (25 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine FC (home) | 1.66 | 1.46 | 0.92 | 2.25 |
| Portadown (away) | 1.38 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.46 × 0.92 ≈ 2.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.06 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.24, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Coleraine FC | 69.3% | 61.0% | 78.2% | 68.2% |
| X Draw | 18.9% | 25.0% | 14.0% | 20.4% |
| 2 Portadown | 11.8% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 11.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Coleraine FC | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -22.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.4% | 4.90 | 6.35 | 15.7% | +29.5% | |
| 2 · Portadown | 11.4% | 8.79 | 11.50 | 8.7% | +30.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.6% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 31.8% | 3.15 | 4.10 | 24.4% | +30.3% | |
| 12 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -17.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Coleraine FC | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Portadown | 14.3% | 7.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -10.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -5.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -12.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | 2.60 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -4.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -14.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -3.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.98 | 50.5% | +12.0% | |
| BTTS no | 43.4% | 2.30 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -26.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.4% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.5% | 7.40 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.566 × 1.98 − 1 = +0.120 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.123 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Coleraine FC | Portadown |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWWW | DLLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Coleraine FC at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Coleraine FC 2nd on 38, Portadown 12th on 9.
Form
Coleraine FC, last six: L D W W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 0–3 away at Linfield. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Portadown, last six: D L L L W D – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Ballymena United. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Coleraine FC 2, Portadown 0, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Portadown 0–3 Coleraine FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Coleraine FC 2.24 · Portadown 0.83 · total 3.08. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.98 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: Coleraine FC 2–1 Portadown. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Aug 2026Portadown0–3Coleraine FC
- 18 Jul 2026Coleraine FC3–0Portadown
Premiership table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Linfield | 16 | +16 | 39 |
| 2 |  Coleraine FC | 16 | +19 | 38 |
| 3 |  Larne | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Glentoran | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cliftonville FC | 16 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Carrick Rangers | 16 | -4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Crusaders FC | 16 | -10 | 19 |
| 8 |  Dungannon Swifts | 15 | -7 | 18 |
| 9 |  Limavady United | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 |  Ballymena United | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Bangor | 16 | -14 | 12 |
| 12 |  Portadown | 16 | -16 | 9 |
More Premiership predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Coleraine FC vs Portadown?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.98 by the bookmakers.
What are the Coleraine FC v Portadown probabilities?
Coleraine FC win 68%, draw 20%, Portadown win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Coleraine FC vs Portadown?
Coleraine FC 2–1 Portadown is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Coleraine FC vs Portadown?
Coleraine FC 2.24, Portadown 0.83 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Coleraine FC vs Portadown?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at The Showgrounds – Premiership.