- λ home
- 2.11
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 2.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.6%
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts prediction & xG model: Larne to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Larne v Dungannon Swifts: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipLarne to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Larne v Dungannon Swifts are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne (home) | 1.66 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 1.73 |
| Dungannon Swifts (away) | 1.38 | 1.05 | 0.75 | 1.08 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.18 × 0.89 ≈ 1.73
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.82 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.74 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.14 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.11, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Larne | 51.8% | 71.0% | 63.0% | 67.6% |
| X Draw | 24.9% | 15.0% | 20.3% | 17.2% |
| 2 Dungannon Swifts | 23.3% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 15.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Larne pick | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -4.0% | |
| X · Draw | 17.2% | 5.80 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -24.2% | |
| 2 · Dungannon Swifts | 15.1% | 6.61 | 5.35 | 18.7% | -19.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -8.4% | |
| X2 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -21.7% | |
| 12 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Larne | 81.7% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Dungannon Swifts | 18.3% | 5.47 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -9.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.1% | 4.96 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -7.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -12.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -5.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -14.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -8.7% | |
| BTTS no | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -8.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.4% | 6.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.676 × 1.42 − 1 = -0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWLL | WDLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Larne 68% to win. Standings: Larne 3rd on 29, Dungannon Swifts 8th on 18.
Form
Larne have two wins from their last six (L W D W L L). Latest: 2–4 away at Cliftonville FC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Dungannon Swifts have two wins from their last six (W D L W D L). Latest: 3–2 at home to Limavady United. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Larne 2–1 Dungannon Swifts. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Larne 2.11 · Dungannon Swifts 0.85 · total 2.96. Goals expected – 59% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Larne to win, probability 68%, odds 1.42 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Larne 2–0 Dungannon Swifts. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Mar 2026Larne2–1Dungannon Swifts
Premiership table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Linfield | 16 | +16 | 39 |
| 2 |  Coleraine FC | 16 | +19 | 38 |
| 3 |  Larne | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Glentoran | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cliftonville FC | 16 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Carrick Rangers | 16 | -4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Crusaders FC | 16 | -10 | 19 |
| 8 |  Dungannon Swifts | 15 | -7 | 18 |
| 9 |  Limavady United | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 |  Ballymena United | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Bangor | 16 | -14 | 12 |
| 12 |  Portadown | 16 | -16 | 9 |
More Premiership predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Larne vs Dungannon Swifts?
The Model pick is Larne to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.42 by the bookmakers.
What are the Larne v Dungannon Swifts probabilities?
Larne win 68%, draw 17%, Dungannon Swifts win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Larne vs Dungannon Swifts?
Larne 2–0 Dungannon Swifts is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Larne vs Dungannon Swifts?
Larne 2.11, Dungannon Swifts 0.85 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Larne vs Dungannon Swifts?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Inver Park – Premiership.