- λ home
- 1.93
- λ away
- 0.77
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.9%
Glentoran vs Bangor prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Glentoran v Bangor: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Glentoran v Bangor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glentoran (home) | 1.66 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 1.72 |
| Bangor (away) | 1.38 | 0.90 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.06 × 0.98 ≈ 1.72
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.49 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.31 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.03 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.93, λaway = 0.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Glentoran | 59.0% | 64.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 21.0% | 19.0% | 20.2% |
| 2 Bangor | 16.2% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Glentoran | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -12.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.2% | 4.96 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -5.2% | |
| 2 · Bangor | 14.7% | 6.80 | 6.25 | 16.0% | -8.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -11.3% | |
| X2 | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -5.8% | |
| 12 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -12.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Glentoran | 81.6% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bangor | 18.4% | 5.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -11.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -0.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -14.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +0.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -20.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -3.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 43.8% | 2.28 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -17.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.0% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.1% | 7.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.562 × 1.77 − 1 = -0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Glentoran | Bangor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWDWW | WWLLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Glentoran at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Glentoran 4th on 25, Bangor 11th on 12.
Form
Glentoran have three wins from their last six (D D W D W W). Latest: 0–0 away at Carrick Rangers. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Bangor, last six: W W L L D L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Crusaders FC. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Glentoran 1, Bangor 0, drawn 1, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Glentoran 1–1 Bangor. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Glentoran 1.93 · Bangor 0.77 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Glentoran 2–1 Bangor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Sep 2026Glentoran1–1Bangor
- 10 Mar 2026Bangor0–4Glentoran
Premiership table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Linfield | 16 | +16 | 39 |
| 2 |  Coleraine FC | 16 | +19 | 38 |
| 3 |  Larne | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Glentoran | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cliftonville FC | 16 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Carrick Rangers | 16 | -4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Crusaders FC | 16 | -10 | 19 |
| 8 |  Dungannon Swifts | 15 | -7 | 18 |
| 9 |  Limavady United | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 |  Ballymena United | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Bangor | 16 | -14 | 12 |
| 12 |  Portadown | 16 | -16 | 9 |
More Premiership predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Glentoran vs Bangor?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Glentoran v Bangor probabilities?
Glentoran win 65%, draw 20%, Bangor win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Glentoran vs Bangor?
Glentoran 2–1 Bangor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Glentoran vs Bangor?
Glentoran 1.93, Bangor 0.77 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Glentoran vs Bangor?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at The BetMcLean Oval – Premiership.