Serbia Super Liga Sat 7 Nov 2026 · Zemun Stadium Full time

Zemun

DLLWL

1–1

Half-time 0–0

IMT Novi Beograd

WWLLD

11%P(1)22%P(X)67%P(2)

λ home: 0.58
λ away: 1.81
Σλ total: 2.39
P(over 2.5): 46%
P(BTTS): 51%
Modal score: 0–1 16.6%

Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd prediction & xG model: IMT Novi Beograd to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Zemun v IMT Novi Beograd: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipIMT Novi Beograd to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Zemun v IMT Novi Beograd are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (25 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Zemun (home)	1.66	0.67	0.62	0.69
IMT Novi Beograd (away)	1.38	0.76	1.13	1.19

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.67 × 0.62 ≈ 0.69

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	1.88	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.11	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.62	30%
Blended total λ	2.39	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.58, λ_away = 1.81

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Zemun λ = 0.58

055.9%

132.5%

29.5%

31.8%

40.3%

5+0.0%

IMT Novi Beograd λ = 1.81

016.4%

129.7%

226.8%

316.1%

47.3%

5+3.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Zem \ IMT012345+

09.217159.04.12.1

15.39.68.75.22.41.2

21.62.82.51.50.7·

3·0.5····

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 11.3%
Σ draw cells: 21.7%
Σ away-win cells: 67.0%
Most probable score: 0–1 · 16.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Zemun	21.0%	6.0%	18.4%	11.2%
X Draw	32.4%	21.0%	23.0%	21.8%
2 IMT Novi Beograd	46.6%	73.0%	58.6%	67.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Zemun	11.2%	8.92	5.00	20.0%	-44.0%
X · Draw	21.8%	4.58	4.00	25.0%	-12.6%
2 · IMT Novi Beograd pick	67.0%	1.49	1.57	63.7%	+5.1%
Double chance
1X	33.0%	3.03	2.10	47.6%	-30.6%
X2	88.8%	1.13	1.17	85.5%	+3.9%
12	78.2%	1.28	1.25	80.0%	-2.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Zemun	14.3%	6.97	–	–	–
DNB IMT Novi Beograd	85.7%	1.17	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	70.6%	1.42	1.30	76.9%	-8.2%
Under 1.5	29.4%	3.40	3.40	29.4%	-0.1%
Over 2.5	45.7%	2.19	1.95	51.3%	-10.9%
Under 2.5	54.3%	1.84	1.85	54.1%	+0.4%
Over 3.5	24.8%	4.04	3.40	29.4%	-15.8%
Under 3.5	75.2%	1.33	1.30	76.9%	-2.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	51.5%	1.94	1.91	52.4%	-1.7%
BTTS no	48.5%	2.06	1.80	55.6%	-12.6%
Half-time
HT 1	11.2%	8.91	–	–	–
HT X	42.4%	2.36	–	–	–
HT 2	46.3%	2.16	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickIMT Novi Beograd to win

Probability67.0%

Fair odds1.49

Best odds1.57

EV per unit+5.1%

EV = 0.670 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.051 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.090 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Zemun	IMT Novi Beograd
Sequence	LWLLDD	DLLWWD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	2-2-2
Points per match	0.83	1.33
Goals for / match	0.67	0.67
Goals against / match	2.00	0.83
Over 2.5	67%	17%
BTTS	33%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	50%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

IMT Novi Beograd favoured on the road at 67% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Zemun 14th on 7, IMT Novi Beograd 4th on 23.

Form

Zemun, last six: L W L L D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–3 away at FK Partizan. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.

IMT Novi Beograd, last six: D L L W W D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Cukaricki. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.

Head to head

Last meeting (Jul 2026): IMT Novi Beograd 4–0 Zemun. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Zemun 0.58 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.81 · total 2.39. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 51%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: IMT Novi Beograd to win, probability 67%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Zemun 0–1 IMT Novi Beograd. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

25 Jul 2026IMT Novi Beograd4–0Zemun

Super Liga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	15	14	1	0	+32	43
2	Vojvodina	15	10	2	3	+17	32
3	Železničar Pančevo	14	9	2	3	+12	29
4	IMT Novi Beograd	15	6	5	4	+6	23
5	Radnicki 1923	15	7	2	6	+3	23
6	Radnik Surdulica	15	6	5	4	+2	23
7	Cukaricki	15	6	4	5	0	22
8	Novi Pazar	15	5	4	6	-1	19
9	Mladost Lucani	15	4	6	5	-9	18
10	FK Partizan	15	5	2	8	-1	17
11	Macva	15	3	4	8	-13	13
12	OFK Beograd	15	2	5	8	-12	11
13	Radnicki NIS	14	2	2	10	-15	8
14	Zemun	15	1	4	10	-21	7