- λ home
- 1.65
- λ away
- 0.76
- Σλ total
- 2.40
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.9%
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani prediction & xG model: Novi Pazar to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Novi Pazar v Mladost Lucani: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNovi Pazar to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Novi Pazar v Mladost Lucani are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novi Pazar (home) | 1.66 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 1.37 |
| Mladost Lucani (away) | 1.38 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.90 × 0.92 ≈ 1.37
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.08 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.14 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.40 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.65, λaway = 0.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Novi Pazar | 51.6% | 66.0% | 47.3% | 58.1% |
| X Draw | 29.5% | 24.0% | 27.1% | 25.3% |
| 2 Mladost Lucani | 18.9% | 10.0% | 25.6% | 16.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Novi Pazar pick | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +13.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -14.0% | |
| 2 · Mladost Lucani | 16.6% | 6.04 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -40.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +6.8% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -24.6% | |
| 12 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Novi Pazar | 77.8% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mladost Lucani | 22.2% | 4.51 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -0.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -10.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +0.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -15.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -11.0% | |
| BTTS no | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -6.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.51 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.581 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.134 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.141 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Novi Pazar | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLD | LDDLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Novi Pazar 58%, draw 25%, Mladost Lucani 17%. Standings: Novi Pazar 8th on 19, Mladost Lucani 9th on 18.
Form
Sequence for Novi Pazar: L W W L L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Radnicki 1923. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Mladost Lucani: L D D L D W, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Radnik Surdulica. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Head to head
Previous 2: Novi Pazar 1, Mladost Lucani 0, drawn 1, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Mladost Lucani 0–0 Novi Pazar. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Novi Pazar 1.65 · Mladost Lucani 0.76 · total 2.40. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Novi Pazar to win, probability 58%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Novi Pazar 1–0 Mladost Lucani. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Mladost Lucani0–0Novi Pazar
- 9 Mar 2026Mladost Lucani0–2Novi Pazar
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?
The Model pick is Novi Pazar to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Novi Pazar v Mladost Lucani probabilities?
Novi Pazar win 58%, draw 25%, Mladost Lucani win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?
Novi Pazar 1–0 Mladost Lucani is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?
Novi Pazar 1.65, Mladost Lucani 0.76 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Gradski Stadion – Super Liga.