- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 2.03
- Σλ total
- 3.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.9%
Vojvodina vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction & xG model: FK Crvena Zvezda to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Vojvodina v FK Crvena Zvezda: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFK Crvena Zvezda to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Vojvodina v FK Crvena Zvezda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 42 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vojvodina (home) | 1.66 | 1.27 | 0.58 | 1.23 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda (away) | 1.38 | 1.69 | 0.70 | 1.63 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.27 × 0.58 ≈ 1.23
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.04 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 2.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vojvodina | 28.5% | 20.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% |
| X Draw | 25.6% | 12.0% | 23.1% | 16.7% |
| 2 FK Crvena Zvezda | 46.0% | 68.0% | 51.3% | 61.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.083 → 8.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vojvodina | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -19.5% | |
| X · Draw | 16.7% | 6.01 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -33.4% | |
| 2 · FK Crvena Zvezda pick | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +9.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 39.0% | 2.56 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -25.5% | |
| X2 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.6% | |
| 12 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vojvodina | 26.8% | 3.73 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FK Crvena Zvezda | 73.2% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.48 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -8.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.4% | 2.61 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -4.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.4% | 2.42 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.7% | |
| BTTS no | 36.4% | 2.74 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -8.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.2% | 5.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.610 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.098 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.122 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vojvodina | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDWWD | WWWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FK Crvena Zvezda favoured on the road at 61% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Vojvodina 2nd on 32, FK Crvena Zvezda 1st on 43.
Form
Vojvodina have three wins from their last six (W L D W W D). Latest: 2–0 away at OFK Beograd. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded.
FK Crvena Zvezda, last six: W W W W D W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Inter Club d'Escaldes. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 Vojvodina. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vojvodina 1.11 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.03 · total 3.14. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FK Crvena Zvezda to win, probability 61%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Vojvodina 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026FK Crvena Zvezda3–1Vojvodina
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vojvodina vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
The Model pick is FK Crvena Zvezda to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vojvodina v FK Crvena Zvezda probabilities?
Vojvodina win 22%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda win 61%.
What is the most probable score for Vojvodina vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
Vojvodina 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vojvodina vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
Vojvodina 1.11, FK Crvena Zvezda 2.03 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Vojvodina vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Super Liga.