- λ home
- 2.23
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 3.12
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.9%
FK Partizan vs Macva prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FK Partizan v Macva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FK Partizan v Macva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (35 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan (home) | 1.66 | 1.36 | 0.90 | 2.04 |
| Macva (away) | 1.38 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.36 × 0.90 ≈ 2.04
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.08 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.12 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.23, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FK Partizan | 59.9% | 65.0% | 73.9% | 68.8% |
| X Draw | 21.9% | 16.0% | 16.8% | 16.3% |
| 2 Macva | 18.2% | 19.0% | 9.2% | 14.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.082 → 8.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FK Partizan | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 16.3% | 6.12 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -10.1% | |
| 2 · Macva | 14.9% | 6.71 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +49.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.1% | 1.18 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -12.3% | |
| X2 | 31.2% | 3.20 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +17.2% | |
| 12 | 83.7% | 1.20 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FK Partizan | 82.2% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Macva | 17.8% | 5.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.6% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.4% | 5.44 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -8.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -3.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -1.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -9.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.6% | 6.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.588 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FK Partizan | Macva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLLW | LWLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FK Partizan 69% to win. Standings: FK Partizan 10th on 17, Macva 11th on 13.
Form
FK Partizan have four wins from their last six (W W W L L W). Latest: 5–1 away at Budučnost Krušik. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Macva have one win from their last six (L W L D D L). Latest: 2–4 at home to FK Crvena Zvezda. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Macva 1–3 FK Partizan. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FK Partizan 2.23 · Macva 0.89 · total 3.12. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 59%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: FK Partizan 2–0 Macva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Macva1–3FK Partizan
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FK Partizan vs Macva?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the FK Partizan v Macva probabilities?
FK Partizan win 69%, draw 16%, Macva win 15%.
What is the most probable score for FK Partizan vs Macva?
FK Partizan 2–0 Macva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FK Partizan vs Macva?
FK Partizan 2.23, Macva 0.89 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is FK Partizan vs Macva?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Stadion Partizana – Super Liga.