- λ home
- 1.60
- λ away
- 1.06
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Železničar Pančevo v Radnicki 1923: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Železničar Pančevo v Radnicki 1923 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (27 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Železničar Pančevo (home) | 1.66 | 1.18 | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| Radnicki 1923 (away) | 1.38 | 1.07 | 0.69 | 1.01 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.18 × 0.82 ≈ 1.62
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.56 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.60, λaway = 1.06
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 49.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 25.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Železničar Pančevo | 50.9% | 57.0% | 44.9% | 51.9% |
| X Draw | 26.0% | 17.0% | 26.3% | 20.9% |
| 2 Radnicki 1923 | 23.1% | 26.0% | 28.8% | 27.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Železničar Pančevo | 51.9% | 1.93 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +6.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Radnicki 1923 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -13.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -3.1% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -16.8% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Železničar Pančevo | 65.7% | 1.52 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Radnicki 1923 | 34.3% | 2.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -4.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -3.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.4% | 3.41 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -11.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.5% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.3% | 4.69 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.602 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.009 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Železničar Pančevo | Radnicki 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWW | WLWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 6-0-0 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Železničar Pančevo ahead at 52%, against 27% for Radnicki 1923 and 21% for the draw. Standings: Železničar Pančevo 3rd on 29, Radnicki 1923 5th on 23.
Form
Železničar Pančevo have six wins from their last six (W W W W W W). Latest: 2–1 away at Radnicki 1923. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Radnicki 1923, last six: W L W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Novi Pazar. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Radnicki 1923 1–2 Železničar Pančevo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Železničar Pančevo 1.60 · Radnicki 1923 1.06 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Železničar Pančevo 2–1 Radnicki 1923. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Oct 2026Radnicki 19231–2Železničar Pančevo
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Železničar Pančevo v Radnicki 1923 probabilities?
Železničar Pančevo win 52%, draw 21%, Radnicki 1923 win 27%.
What is the most probable score for Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923?
Železničar Pančevo 2–1 Radnicki 1923 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923?
Železničar Pančevo 1.60, Radnicki 1923 1.06 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost – Super Liga.