Friendlies Fri 13 Nov 2026 Full time

Spain U21

WWLWW

2–0

Half-time 1–0

Japan U21

69%P(1)18%P(X)13%P(2)

λ home: 2.05
λ away: 0.73
Σλ total: 2.78
P(over 2.5): 58%
P(BTTS): 56%
Modal score: 2–0 13.0%

Spain U21 vs Japan U21 prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Spain U21 v Japan U21: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Spain U21 v Japan U21 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (6 and 2 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Spain U21 (home)	1.66	2.10	0.80	–
Japan U21 (away)	1.38	0.92	0.72	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 2.10 × 0.80 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.25	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.22	55%
Blended total λ	2.78	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.05, λ_away = 0.73

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Spain U21 λ = 2.05

012.9%

126.4%

227.1%

318.5%

49.5%

5+5.7%

Japan U21 λ = 0.73

048.1%

135.2%

212.9%

33.1%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Spa \ Jap012345+

06.24.51.7···

1139.33.40.8··

2139.53.50.8··

38.96.52.40.6··

44.63.31.2···

5+2.82.00.7···

Σ home-win cells: 68.1%
Σ draw cells: 19.6%
Σ away-win cells: 12.2%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 13.0%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Spain U21	–	69.0%	69.4%	69.2%
X Draw	–	18.0%	16.9%	17.5%
2 Japan U21	–	13.0%	13.7%	13.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.126 → 12.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Spain U21	69.2%	1.45	1.28	78.1%	-11.5%
X · Draw	17.5%	5.70	5.25	19.0%	-7.9%
2 · Japan U21	13.3%	7.53	6.50	15.4%	-13.7%
Double chance
1X	86.7%	1.15	1.10	90.9%	-4.6%
X2	30.8%	3.24	3.00	33.3%	-7.5%
12	82.5%	1.21	1.17	85.5%	-3.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Spain U21	83.9%	1.19	–	–	–
DNB Japan U21	16.1%	6.21	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	79.7%	1.25	1.14	87.7%	-9.1%
Under 1.5	20.3%	4.93	5.50	18.2%	+11.7%
Over 2.5	57.6%	1.74	1.50	66.7%	-13.7%
Under 2.5	42.4%	2.36	2.50	40.0%	+6.1%
Over 3.5	36.4%	2.75	2.20	45.5%	-19.9%
Under 3.5 pick	63.6%	1.57	1.62	61.7%	+3.0%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	55.9%	1.79	1.80	55.6%	+0.6%
BTTS no	44.1%	2.27	1.91	52.4%	-15.8%
Half-time
HT 1	48.6%	2.06	–	–	–
HT X	38.6%	2.59	–	–	–
HT 2	12.8%	7.82	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability63.6%

Fair odds1.57

Best odds1.62

EV per unit+3.0%

EV = 0.636 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.049 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 5 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Spain U21	Japan U21
Sequence	WWLWW	W
Matches	5	1
W-D-L	4-0-1	1-0-0
Points per match	2.40	3.00
Goals for / match	6.00	3.00
Goals against / match	0.60	0.00
Over 2.5	80%	100%
BTTS	40%	0%
Clean sheets	60%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Spain U21 at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Spain U21, last five: W W L W W – four wins in total. Latest: 7–1 at home to Romania U21. 6.0 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Spain U21 2.05 · Japan U21 0.73 · total 2.78. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 56%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Spain U21 2–0 Japan U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.