Friendlies Fri 13 Nov 2026 Full time

Poland U21

WWWL

2–0

Half-time 1–0

Norway U21

LLDWD

23%P(1)51%P(X)26%P(2)

λ home: 1.22
λ away: 1.27
Σλ total: 2.49
P(over 2.5): 50%
P(BTTS): 58%
Modal score: 1–1 12.9%

Poland U21 vs Norway U21 prediction & xG model: Norway U21 or draw

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Poland U21 v Norway U21: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipNorway U21 or draw✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Poland U21 v Norway U21 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Poland U21 (home)	1.66	1.26	0.84	–
Norway U21 (away)	1.38	0.98	1.01	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.26 × 0.84 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.00	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.89	55%
Blended total λ	2.49	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.22, λ_away = 1.27

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Poland U21 λ = 1.22

029.6%

136.0%

221.9%

38.9%

42.7%

5+0.8%

Norway U21 λ = 1.27

028.1%

135.7%

222.6%

39.6%

43.0%

5+1.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Pol \ Nor012345+

08.3116.72.80.9·

110138.23.51.1·

26.27.85.02.10.7·

32.53.22.00.9··

40.81.00.6···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 35.2%
Σ draw cells: 27.1%
Σ away-win cells: 37.7%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.9%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Poland U21	–	14.0%	36.0%	23.2%
X Draw	–	70.0%	25.0%	51.1%
2 Norway U21	–	16.0%	39.1%	25.7%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Poland U21	23.2%	4.31	2.50	40.0%	-41.9%
X · Draw	51.1%	1.96	3.60	27.8%	+83.9%
2 · Norway U21	25.7%	3.89	2.30	43.5%	-40.9%
Double chance
1X	74.3%	1.35	1.44	69.4%	+7.0%
X2 pick	76.8%	1.30	1.57	63.7%	+20.5%
12	48.9%	2.04	1.25	80.0%	-38.9%
Draw no bet
DNB Poland U21	47.5%	2.11	–	–	–
DNB Norway U21	52.5%	1.90	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	73.8%	1.35	1.22	82.0%	-9.9%
Under 1.5	26.2%	3.82	4.00	25.0%	+4.7%
Over 2.5	50.3%	1.99	1.70	58.8%	-14.5%
Under 2.5	49.7%	2.01	2.10	47.6%	+4.4%
Over 3.5	29.7%	3.36	2.62	38.2%	-22.1%
Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.44	69.4%	+1.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	58.4%	1.71	1.62	61.7%	-5.4%
BTTS no	41.6%	2.40	2.20	45.5%	-8.5%
Half-time
HT 1	27.1%	3.69	–	–	–
HT X	44.3%	2.26	–	–	–
HT 2	28.6%	3.50	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickNorway U21 or draw

Probability76.8%

Fair odds1.30

Best odds1.57

EV per unit+20.5%

EV = 0.768 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.205 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.360 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Poland U21	Norway U21
Sequence	LWWW	DWDLLW
Matches	4	6
W-D-L	3-0-1	2-2-2
Points per match	2.25	1.33
Goals for / match	2.50	1.67
Goals against / match	1.75	1.33
Over 2.5	75%	33%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	0%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – Poland U21 23%, draw 51%, Norway U21 26%.

Form

Poland U21 have three wins from their last four (L W W W). Latest: 2–6 away at Italy U21. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.

Norway U21 have two wins from their last six (D W D L L W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Israel U21. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Poland U21 1.22 · Norway U21 1.27 · total 2.49. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 58%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Norway U21 or draw, probability 77%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.30. Most probable score: Poland U21 1–1 Norway U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.