Friendlies Fri 13 Nov 2026 · Stade Francis Le Basser Full time

France U21

WLWWW

1–2

Half-time 0–0

Italy U21

WWWWW

61%P(1)19%P(X)20%P(2)

λ home: 1.91
λ away: 0.96
Σλ total: 2.86
P(over 2.5): 60%
P(BTTS): 64%
Modal score: 1–0 10.9%

France U21 vs Italy U21 prediction & xG model: France U21 to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

France U21 v Italy U21: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipFrance U21 to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for France U21 v Italy U21 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (10 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
France U21 (home)	1.66	1.22	0.74	1.50
Italy U21 (away)	1.38	1.42	0.87	1.69

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.22 × 0.74 ≈ 1.50

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.19	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.25	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.37	30%
Blended total λ	2.86	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.91, λ_away = 0.96

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

France U21 λ = 1.91

014.9%

128.3%

227.0%

317.2%

48.2%

5+4.5%

Italy U21 λ = 0.96

038.5%

136.8%

217.6%

35.6%

41.3%

5+0.3%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Fra \ Ita012345+

05.75.52.60.8··

111105.01.6··

2109.94.71.5··

36.66.33.01.0··

43.13.01.4···

5+1.71.60.8···

Σ home-win cells: 59.6%
Σ draw cells: 21.9%
Σ away-win cells: 18.4%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 10.9%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 France U21	33.6%	68.0%	51.8%	61.2%
X Draw	24.3%	15.0%	24.1%	18.8%
2 Italy U21	42.0%	17.0%	24.1%	20.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · France U21 pick	61.2%	1.63	1.72	58.1%	+5.3%
X · Draw	18.8%	5.31	3.70	27.0%	-30.4%
2 · Italy U21	20.0%	5.01	3.70	27.0%	-26.1%
Double chance
1X	80.0%	1.25	1.18	84.7%	-5.6%
X2	38.8%	2.58	1.86	53.8%	-27.8%
12	81.2%	1.23	1.18	84.7%	-4.2%
Draw no bet
DNB France U21	75.4%	1.33	–	–	–
DNB Italy U21	24.6%	4.06	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	81.0%	1.23	1.08	92.6%	-12.5%
Under 1.5	19.0%	5.26	5.70	17.5%	+8.3%
Over 2.5	60.0%	1.67	1.38	72.5%	-17.2%
Under 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.62	38.2%	+4.8%
Over 3.5	38.9%	2.57	2.01	49.8%	-21.7%
Under 3.5	61.1%	1.64	1.69	59.2%	+3.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	63.6%	1.57	1.39	71.9%	-11.6%
BTTS no	36.4%	2.75	2.63	38.0%	-4.3%
Half-time
HT 1	43.3%	2.31	–	–	–
HT X	39.3%	2.54	–	–	–
HT 2	17.4%	5.74	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickFrance U21 to win

Probability61.2%

Fair odds1.63

Best odds1.72

EV per unit+5.3%

EV = 0.612 × 1.72 − 1 = +0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.073 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	France U21	Italy U21
Sequence	WWWLWD	WWWWW
Matches	6	5
W-D-L	4-1-1	5-0-0
Points per match	2.17	3.00
Goals for / match	2.50	3.20
Goals against / match	1.17	0.40
Over 2.5	50%	60%
BTTS	67%	20%
Clean sheets	33%	80%
Failed to score	0%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

France U21 at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

France U21, last six: W W W L W D – four wins in total. Latest: 7–1 at home to Switzerland U21. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.

Italy U21 have five wins from their last five (W W W W W). Latest: 6–2 at home to Poland U21. 3.2 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG France U21 1.91 · Italy U21 0.96 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 64%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: France U21 to win, probability 61%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: France U21 1–0 Italy U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.