Friendlies Fri 13 Nov 2026 · National Stadium Full time

Singapore

LWLWL

1–4

Half-time 1–2

Paraguay

DDLWW

11%P(1)17%P(X)73%P(2)

λ home: 0.80
λ away: 2.40
Σλ total: 3.20
P(over 2.5): 67%
P(BTTS): 51%
Modal score: 0–2 11.7%

Singapore vs Paraguay prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Singapore v Paraguay: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–4
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Singapore v Paraguay are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (14 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Singapore (home)	1.66	0.93	0.67	1.04
Paraguay (away)	1.38	1.13	1.05	1.65

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.93 × 0.67 ≈ 1.04

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.69	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.57	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.73	30%
Blended total λ	3.20	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.80, λ_away = 2.40

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Singapore λ = 0.80

044.8%

136.0%

214.4%

33.9%

40.8%

5+0.1%

Paraguay λ = 2.40

09.1%

121.8%

226.1%

320.9%

412.5%

5+9.6%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Sin \ Par012345+

04.19.8129.45.64.3

13.37.89.47.54.53.4

21.33.13.83.01.81.4

3·0.81.00.8··

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 10.7%
Σ draw cells: 16.6%
Σ away-win cells: 72.7%
Most probable score: 0–2 · 11.7%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Singapore	23.5%	16.0%	3.2%	10.6%
X Draw	25.8%	23.0%	7.9%	16.6%
2 Paraguay	50.7%	61.0%	88.9%	72.7%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.061 → 6.1% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Singapore	10.6%	9.39	29.00	3.4%	+208.7%
X · Draw	16.6%	6.01	12.00	8.3%	+99.7%
2 · Paraguay	72.7%	1.38	1.06	94.3%	-22.9%
Double chance
1X	27.3%	3.67	10.00	10.0%	+172.8%
X2	89.4%	1.12	1.01	99.0%	-9.8%
12	83.4%	1.20	1.05	95.2%	-12.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Singapore	12.8%	7.83	–	–	–
DNB Paraguay	87.2%	1.15	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	84.7%	1.18	1.10	90.9%	-6.9%
Under 1.5	15.3%	6.51	7.00	14.3%	+7.4%
Over 2.5	66.9%	1.49	1.33	75.2%	-11.0%
Under 2.5	33.1%	3.03	3.40	29.4%	+12.4%
Over 3.5	44.9%	2.23	1.83	54.6%	-17.9%
Under 3.5	55.1%	1.81	1.83	54.6%	+0.9%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	50.5%	1.98	2.62	38.2%	+32.4%
BTTS no	49.5%	2.02	1.44	69.4%	-28.8%
Half-time
HT 1	12.3%	8.13	–	–	–
HT X	34.5%	2.90	–	–	–
HT 2	53.2%	1.88	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability50.5%

Fair odds1.98

Best odds2.62

EV per unit+32.4%

EV = 0.505 × 2.62 − 1 = +0.324 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.200 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Singapore	Paraguay
Sequence	LWLWLD	WWLDDW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-1-3	3-2-1
Points per match	1.17	1.83
Goals for / match	0.83	0.83
Goals against / match	2.17	0.33
Over 2.5	50%	0%
BTTS	50%	17%
Clean sheets	17%	67%
Failed to score	33%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: Paraguay 73%, Singapore 11%.

Form

Singapore, last six: L W L W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–6 away at Malaysia. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.

Paraguay, last six: W W L D D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Colombia. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Singapore 0.80 · Paraguay 2.40 · total 3.20. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.62 v fair 1.98. Most probable score: Singapore 1–2 Paraguay. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.