- λ home
- 0.74
- λ away
- 1.80
- Σλ total
- 2.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.3%
Saudi Arabia vs South Korea prediction & xG model: South Korea or draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Saudi Arabia v South Korea: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipSouth Korea or draw✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Saudi Arabia v South Korea are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.62 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.74, λaway = 1.80
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 62.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Saudi Arabia | – | 12.0% | 22.5% | 16.4% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 23.7% | 19.2% |
| 2 South Korea | – | 72.0% | 53.9% | 64.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Saudi Arabia | 16.4% | 6.10 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -34.4% | |
| X · Draw | 19.2% | 5.20 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -27.0% | |
| 2 · South Korea | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +7.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.6% | 2.81 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -32.0% | |
| X2 pick | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +2.0% | |
| 12 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Saudi Arabia | 20.3% | 4.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB South Korea | 79.7% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -11.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -4.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -7.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -6.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +14.0% | |
| BTTS no | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -23.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.1% | 7.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.836 × 1.22 − 1 = +0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.090 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Saudi Arabia | South Korea |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWD | WDLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
South Korea favoured on the road at 64% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Saudi Arabia, last six: W D W W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to United Arab Emirates. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.0 conceded. 6 shut-outs in that run.
South Korea have two wins from their last six (W D L W L L). Latest: 2–0 at home to Uzbekistan. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Saudi Arabia 0.74 · South Korea 1.80 · total 2.54. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: South Korea or draw, probability 84%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.20. Most probable score: Saudi Arabia 0–1 South Korea. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Italy U212Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
The Model pick is South Korea or draw with a model probability of 84, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Saudi Arabia v South Korea probabilities?
Saudi Arabia win 16%, draw 19%, South Korea win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Saudi Arabia 0–1 South Korea is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Saudi Arabia 0.74, South Korea 1.80 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Saudi Arabia vs South Korea?
Friday 13 November 2026, 15:30 WAT – Friendlies.