- λ home
- 1.78
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 2.71
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.8%
Albania U21 vs Luxembourg U21 prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Albania U21 v Luxembourg U21: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Albania U21 v Luxembourg U21 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.71 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.78, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Albania U21 | – | 61.0% | 51.7% | 57.1% |
| X Draw | – | 24.0% | 23.5% | 23.8% |
| 2 Luxembourg U21 | – | 15.0% | 24.8% | 19.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Albania U21 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -1.3% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -9.6% | |
| 2 · Luxembourg U21 | 19.1% | 5.23 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -31.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -7.8% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +7.3% | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -10.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Albania U21 | 74.9% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Luxembourg U21 | 25.1% | 3.98 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 4.32 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +0.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +1.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -15.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -2.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.4% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.8% | 5.62 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.768 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.078 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Albania U21 | Luxembourg U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLD | WLWLDL |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Albania U21 57%, draw 24%, Luxembourg U21 19%.
Form
Sequence for Albania U21: D L L D, so zero victories in four. Latest: 2–2 away at Ukraine U21. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Luxembourg U21, last six: W L W L D L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Estonia U21. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Albania U21 1.78 · Luxembourg U21 0.93 · total 2.71. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 77%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.30. Most probable score: Albania U21 2–0 Luxembourg U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Belgium U212Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Albania U21 vs Luxembourg U21?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 77, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Albania U21 v Luxembourg U21 probabilities?
Albania U21 win 57%, draw 24%, Luxembourg U21 win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Albania U21 vs Luxembourg U21?
Albania U21 2–0 Luxembourg U21 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Albania U21 vs Luxembourg U21?
Albania U21 1.78, Luxembourg U21 0.93 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Albania U21 vs Luxembourg U21?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Air Albania Stadium – Friendlies.