- λ home
- 0.55
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 2.05
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 0–1 19.4%
Comoé vs Douanes prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Comoé v Douanes: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Comoé v Douanes are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comoé (home) | 1.05 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| Douanes (away) | 1.02 | 0.92 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.05 × 0.60 × 0.69 ≈ 0.44
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.94 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.13 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.05 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.55, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 19.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Comoé | 19.2% | 19.0% | 11.3% | 15.8% |
| X Draw | 44.2% | 18.0% | 25.9% | 21.3% |
| 2 Douanes | 36.6% | 63.0% | 62.8% | 62.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Comoé | 15.8% | 6.34 | 7.90 | 12.7% | +24.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -26.6% | |
| 2 · Douanes | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -10.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -11.0% | |
| X2 | 84.2% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Comoé | 20.0% | 4.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Douanes | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -9.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -8.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -11.4% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.4% | 6.11 | 5.15 | 19.4% | -15.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.79 | 35.8% | +30.5% | |
| BTTS no | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -28.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.0% | 8.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.43 − 1 = -0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Comoé | Douanes |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWL | WWWLLD |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.20 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 80% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Douanes favoured on the road at 63% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Comoé 14th on 5, Douanes 5th on 17.
Form
Comoé, last five: L D L W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at USFA. Only 0.2 goals a match in that spell.
Douanes, last six: W W W L L D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to RCK. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Comoé 0.55 · Douanes 1.50 · total 2.05. Low total: under 2.5 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.43 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Comoé 0–1 Douanes. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 1 table
League page →
More Ligue 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Comoé vs Douanes?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.43 by the bookmakers.
What are the Comoé v Douanes probabilities?
Comoé win 16%, draw 21%, Douanes win 63%.
What is the most probable score for Comoé vs Douanes?
Comoé 0–1 Douanes is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Comoé vs Douanes?
Comoé 0.55, Douanes 1.50 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Comoé vs Douanes?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Ligue 1.