- λ home
- 1.19
- λ away
- 0.90
- Σλ total
- 2.09
- P(over 2.5)
- 33%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.8%
ASFA-Yennenga vs Sporting Cascades prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: ASFA-Yennenga 45% · draw 25% · Sporting Cascades 30%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
ASFA-Yennenga v Sporting Cascades: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for ASFA-Yennenga v Sporting Cascades are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.25 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.95 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.09 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.19, λaway = 0.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 27.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 ASFA-Yennenga | – | 45.0% | 45.5% | 45.2% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 32.4% | 24.6% |
| 2 Sporting Cascades | – | 36.0% | 22.0% | 30.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · ASFA-Yennenga | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -11.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.6% | 4.06 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -32.2% | |
| 2 · Sporting Cascades | 30.1% | 3.32 | 4.05 | 24.7% | +22.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -20.4% | |
| X2 | 54.8% | 1.83 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -10.2% | |
| 12 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -0.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB ASFA-Yennenga | 60.0% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sporting Cascades | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -3.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 41.4% | 2.42 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -14.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -4.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -12.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15.6% | 6.43 | 5.95 | 16.8% | -7.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 84.4% | 1.18 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.44 | 41.0% | +24.0% | |
| BTTS no | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -28.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.2% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.6% | 2.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.2% | 4.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.508 × 2.44 − 1 = +0.240 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.167 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | ASFA-Yennenga | Sporting Cascades |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLWD | WLLWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: ASFA-Yennenga 45%, draw 25%, Sporting Cascades 30%. Standings: ASFA-Yennenga 8th on 14, Sporting Cascades 9th on 11.
Form
ASFA-Yennenga have three wins from their last six (D W W L W D). Latest: 1–1 away at CFFEB. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Sequence for Sporting Cascades: W L L W D D, so two victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Maya. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): ASFA-Yennenga 1–1 Sporting Cascades. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG ASFA-Yennenga 1.19 · Sporting Cascades 0.90 · total 2.09. Low total: under 2.5 67%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.44 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: ASFA-Yennenga 2–1 Sporting Cascades. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Apr 2026ASFA-Yennenga1–1Sporting Cascades
Ligue 1 table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for ASFA-Yennenga vs Sporting Cascades?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the ASFA-Yennenga v Sporting Cascades probabilities?
ASFA-Yennenga win 45%, draw 25%, Sporting Cascades win 30%.
What is the most probable score for ASFA-Yennenga vs Sporting Cascades?
ASFA-Yennenga 2–1 Sporting Cascades is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for ASFA-Yennenga vs Sporting Cascades?
ASFA-Yennenga 1.19, Sporting Cascades 0.90 – over 2.5 at 33%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is ASFA-Yennenga vs Sporting Cascades?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Stade du 4 Aout – Ligue 1.