- λ home
- 1.02
- λ away
- 1.23
- Σλ total
- 2.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 37%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
Majestic vs FocuSport prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Majestic 32% · draw 25% · FocuSport 43%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Majestic v FocuSport: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Majestic v FocuSport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.44 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.08 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.02, λaway = 1.23
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Majestic | – | 32.0% | 32.2% | 32.1% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 32.8% | 25.4% |
| 2 FocuSport | – | 48.0% | 35.1% | 42.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Majestic | 32.1% | 3.12 | 2.77 | 36.1% | -11.2% | |
| X · Draw | 25.4% | 3.94 | 2.72 | 36.8% | -31.0% | |
| 2 · FocuSport | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.54 | 39.4% | +8.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -20.8% | |
| X2 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -10.3% | |
| 12 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Majestic | 43.0% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FocuSport | 57.0% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -3.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.7% | 2.66 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -15.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.7% | 2.72 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -3.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -12.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.3% | 5.45 | 5.10 | 19.6% | -6.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -10.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.8% | 1.86 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +15.7% | |
| BTTS no | 46.2% | 2.17 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -27.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.7% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.538 × 2.15 − 1 = +0.157 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.137 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Majestic | FocuSport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLLWW | WLLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FocuSport narrowly ahead at 43%; Majestic 32%. Standings: Majestic 11th on 7, FocuSport 5th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Majestic: D W L L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Réal du Faso. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
FocuSport have four wins from their last six (W L L W W W). Latest: 3–2 away at RCK. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Majestic 1.02 · FocuSport 1.23 · total 2.24. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 37%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.15 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Majestic 1–2 FocuSport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 1 table
League page →
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Majestic vs FocuSport?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.15 by the bookmakers.
What are the Majestic v FocuSport probabilities?
Majestic win 32%, draw 25%, FocuSport win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Majestic vs FocuSport?
Majestic 1–2 FocuSport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Majestic vs FocuSport?
Majestic 1.02, FocuSport 1.23 – over 2.5 at 37%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Majestic vs FocuSport?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Stade Municipal – Ligue 1.