- λ home
- 0.66
- λ away
- 1.88
- Σλ total
- 2.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.8%
RCK vs Rahimo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
RCK v Rahimo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
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- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for RCK v Rahimo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (12 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCK (home) | 1.05 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Rahimo (away) | 1.02 | 1.60 | 1.46 | 2.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.05 × 0.93 × 0.92 ≈ 0.90
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.28 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.32 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.66, λaway = 1.88
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 12.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 66.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 RCK | 12.3% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 10.9% |
| X Draw | 18.1% | 23.0% | 25.5% | 24.0% |
| 2 Rahimo | 69.6% | 68.0% | 61.0% | 65.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · RCK | 10.9% | 9.18 | 6.60 | 15.2% | -28.1% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -15.9% | |
| 2 · Rahimo | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -5.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.9% | 2.86 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -19.7% | |
| X2 | 89.1% | 1.12 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -8.2% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -8.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB RCK | 14.3% | 6.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rahimo | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -5.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.2% | 3.21 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -18.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -1.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -12.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -2.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -11.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.34 | 42.7% | +17.7% | |
| BTTS no | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -25.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.3% | 8.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.6% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.503 × 2.34 − 1 = +0.177 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.132 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | RCK | Rahimo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLD | WWLWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Rahimo favoured on the road at 65% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: RCK 14th on 5, Rahimo 1st on 19.
Form
RCK, last six: L L W L L D – one win in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to FocuSport. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for Rahimo: W W L W W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to SONABEL. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Rahimo 2–0 RCK. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG RCK 0.66 · Rahimo 1.88 · total 2.54. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 2.34 v fair 1.99. Most probable score: RCK 1–2 Rahimo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Apr 2026Rahimo2–0RCK
Ligue 1 table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for RCK vs Rahimo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 2.34 by the bookmakers.
What are the RCK v Rahimo probabilities?
RCK win 11%, draw 24%, Rahimo win 65%.
What is the most probable score for RCK vs Rahimo?
RCK 1–2 Rahimo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for RCK vs Rahimo?
RCK 0.66, Rahimo 1.88 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is RCK vs Rahimo?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Stade Municipal – Ligue 1.