Friendlies Clubs Sat 3 Oct 2026 Full time

Austria Lustenau

DLWLW

0–1

Half-time 0–0

FC Schalke 04

DLDWD

13%P(1)19%P(X)69%P(2)

λ home: 0.86
λ away: 2.24
Σλ total: 3.10
P(over 2.5): 60%
P(BTTS): 47%
Modal score: 0–2 11.3%

Austria Lustenau vs FC Schalke 04 prediction & xG model: FC Schalke 04 to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Austria Lustenau v FC Schalke 04: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipFC Schalke 04 to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Austria Lustenau v FC Schalke 04 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 8 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Austria Lustenau (home)	1.73	0.75	0.89	1.15
FC Schalke 04 (away)	1.62	1.14	0.69	1.26

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.73 × 0.75 × 0.89 ≈ 1.15

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.42	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.05	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.15	30%
Blended total λ	3.10	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.86, λ_away = 2.24

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Austria Lustenau λ = 0.86

042.4%

136.4%

215.6%

34.5%

41.0%

5+0.2%

FC Schalke 04 λ = 2.24

010.6%

123.8%

226.7%

320.0%

411.2%

5+7.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Aus \ FC 012345+

04.510118.54.73.3

13.98.79.77.34.12.8

21.73.74.23.11.71.2

3·1.11.20.90.5·

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 12.9%
Σ draw cells: 18.3%
Σ away-win cells: 68.7%
Most probable score: 0–2 · 11.3%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Austria Lustenau	33.0%	12.0%	13.9%	12.8%
X Draw	28.9%	17.0%	20.8%	18.6%
2 FC Schalke 04	38.1%	71.0%	65.3%	68.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Austria Lustenau	12.8%	7.82	6.50	15.4%	-16.9%
X · Draw	18.6%	5.38	4.33	23.1%	-19.4%
2 · FC Schalke 04 pick	68.6%	1.46	1.38	72.5%	-5.3%
Double chance
1X	31.4%	3.19	2.75	36.4%	-13.7%
X2	87.2%	1.15	1.07	93.5%	-6.7%
12	81.4%	1.23	1.14	87.7%	-7.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Austria Lustenau	15.7%	6.37	–	–	–
DNB FC Schalke 04	84.3%	1.19	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	81.6%	1.23	–	–	–
Under 1.5	18.4%	5.42	–	–	–
Over 2.5	60.4%	1.66	1.53	65.4%	-7.6%
Under 2.5	39.6%	2.53	2.38	42.0%	-5.8%
Over 3.5	37.6%	2.66	–	–	–
Under 3.5	62.4%	1.60	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	47.3%	2.12	–	–	–
BTTS no	52.7%	1.90	–	–	–
Half-time
HT 1	13.9%	7.19	–	–	–
HT X	36.0%	2.78	–	–	–
HT 2	50.1%	2.00	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickFC Schalke 04 to win

Probability68.6%

Fair odds1.46

Best odds1.38

EV per unit-5.3%

EV = 0.686 × 1.38 − 1 = -0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Austria Lustenau	FC Schalke 04
Sequence	WLWLDW	DWDLDL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-1-2	1-3-2
Points per match	1.67	1.00
Goals for / match	2.00	0.83
Goals against / match	1.67	1.50
Over 2.5	67%	67%
BTTS	67%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	17%	67%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: FC Schalke 04 69%, Austria Lustenau 13%.

Form

Austria Lustenau, last six: W L W L D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to SCR Altach. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.

FC Schalke 04 have one win from their last six (D W D L D L). Latest: 0–0 at home to SV Elversberg. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Austria Lustenau 0.86 · FC Schalke 04 2.24 · total 3.10. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 47% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: FC Schalke 04 to win, probability 69%, odds 1.38 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Austria Lustenau 0–2 FC Schalke 04. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.