- λ home
- 2.02
- λ away
- 0.90
- Σλ total
- 2.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.0%
Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica prediction & xG model: Zaglebie Lubin to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Zaglebie Lubin v Miedz Legnica: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipZaglebie Lubin to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Zaglebie Lubin v Miedz Legnica are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin (home) | 1.73 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.58 |
| Miedz Legnica (away) | 1.62 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 1.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.73 × 0.93 × 0.99 ≈ 1.58
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.73 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.28 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.02, λaway = 0.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Zaglebie Lubin | 46.6% | 70.0% | 52.6% | 62.7% |
| X Draw | 26.2% | 20.0% | 25.6% | 22.3% |
| 2 Miedz Legnica | 27.2% | 10.0% | 21.8% | 15.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Zaglebie Lubin pick | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +6.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -21.8% | |
| 2 · Miedz Legnica | 15.0% | 6.68 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -38.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.0% | 1.18 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -0.5% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -27.3% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Zaglebie Lubin | 80.7% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Miedz Legnica | 19.3% | 5.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.1% | 4.73 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +1.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -11.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.5% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 52.8% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.0% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.7% | 6.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.627 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.066 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.094 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Miedz Legnica |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDLD | LLDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Zaglebie Lubin 63% to win.
Form
Sequence for Zaglebie Lubin: L W W D L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to Wisla Plock. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Miedz Legnica have two wins from their last six (L L D L W W). Latest: 2–3 at home to Stal Rzeszów. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Zaglebie Lubin 2.02 · Miedz Legnica 0.90 · total 2.92. Goals expected – 52% for over 2.5 and 47% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Zaglebie Lubin to win, probability 63%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Miedz Legnica. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More Friendlies Clubs predictions
League page →
Perth Glory1
Adelaide United3
Arges Pitesti0
Slatina0
Chindia Targoviste1
Petrolul Ploiesti0
Lokomotiv2
FC Orenburg0
Slavia Sofia2
Botev Vratsa1
Chrobry Głogów1
Warta Poznań3
FK Zalgiris Vilnius0
Panevėžys2
Hannover 962
Verl0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
The Model pick is Zaglebie Lubin to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Zaglebie Lubin v Miedz Legnica probabilities?
Zaglebie Lubin win 63%, draw 22%, Miedz Legnica win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Miedz Legnica is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Zaglebie Lubin 2.02, Miedz Legnica 0.90 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Saturday 3 October 2026, 10:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.