Friendlies Clubs Sat 3 Oct 2026 Full time

Petrolul Ploiesti

LWDWW

23%P(1)16%P(X)61%P(2)

λ home: 1.41
λ away: 2.42
Σλ total: 3.83
P(over 2.5): 74%
P(BTTS): 69%
Modal score: 1–2 9.0%

Chindia Targoviste vs Petrolul Ploiesti prediction & xG model: Petrolul Ploiesti to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Chindia Targoviste v Petrolul Ploiesti: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipPetrolul Ploiesti to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Chindia Targoviste v Petrolul Ploiesti are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Chindia Targoviste (home)	1.66	1.41	0.81	1.91
Petrolul Ploiesti (away)	1.38	1.24	0.90	1.55

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.41 × 0.81 ≈ 1.91

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.46	64%
Statistical xG feed	3.83	36%
Blended total λ	3.83	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.41, λ_away = 2.42

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Chindia Targoviste λ = 1.41

024.5%

134.5%

224.2%

311.4%

44.0%

5+1.4%

Petrolul Ploiesti λ = 2.42

08.9%

121.5%

226.0%

321.0%

412.7%

5+9.9%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Chi \ Pet012345+

02.25.36.45.23.12.4

13.17.49.07.24.43.4

22.15.26.35.13.12.4

31.02.43.02.41.41.1

4·0.91.00.80.5·

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 21.2%
Σ draw cells: 18.9%
Σ away-win cells: 59.9%
Most probable score: 1–2 · 9.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Chindia Targoviste	45.9%	19.0%	27.9%	22.7%
X Draw	23.0%	10.0%	23.8%	15.8%
2 Petrolul Ploiesti	31.2%	71.0%	48.3%	61.5%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Chindia Targoviste	22.7%	4.40	3.20	31.3%	-27.2%
X · Draw	15.8%	6.33	3.75	26.7%	-40.7%
2 · Petrolul Ploiesti pick	61.5%	1.63	1.85	54.1%	+13.7%
Double chance
1X	38.5%	2.59	1.80	55.6%	-30.6%
X2	77.3%	1.29	1.30	76.9%	+0.4%
12	84.2%	1.19	1.25	80.0%	+5.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Chindia Targoviste	27.0%	3.70	–	–	–
DNB Petrolul Ploiesti	73.0%	1.37	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	89.5%	1.12	–	–	–
Under 1.5	10.5%	9.54	–	–	–
Over 2.5	73.6%	1.36	–	–	–
Under 2.5	26.4%	3.79	–	–	–
Over 3.5	53.3%	1.88	–	–	–
Under 3.5	46.7%	2.14	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	69.4%	1.44	1.44	69.4%	+0.0%
BTTS no	30.6%	3.27	2.62	38.2%	-19.9%
Half-time
HT 1	21.1%	4.74	–	–	–
HT X	33.0%	3.03	–	–	–
HT 2	45.9%	2.18	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickPetrolul Ploiesti to win

Probability61.5%

Fair odds1.63

Best odds1.85

EV per unit+13.7%

EV = 0.615 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.137 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.161 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Chindia Targoviste	Petrolul Ploiesti
Sequence	WWLLWL	WWDWLW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-0-3	4-1-1
Points per match	1.50	2.17
Goals for / match	1.83	2.00
Goals against / match	1.17	1.17
Over 2.5	67%	50%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: Petrolul Ploiesti 61%, Chindia Targoviste 23%.

Form

Chindia Targoviste have three wins from their last six (W W L L W L). Latest: 1–0 away at Unirea Slobozia. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Petrolul Ploiesti, last six: W W D W L W – four wins in total. Latest: 3–2 at home to CS Afumati. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Chindia Targoviste 1.41 · Petrolul Ploiesti 2.42 · total 3.83. Goals expected – 74% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Petrolul Ploiesti to win, probability 61%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Chindia Targoviste 1–2 Petrolul Ploiesti. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.