Friendlies Clubs Sat 3 Oct 2026 Full time

Lokomotiv

LDWLD

2–0

FC Orenburg

DDDLD

48%P(1)21%P(X)31%P(2)

λ home: 1.62
λ away: 1.25
Σλ total: 2.87
P(over 2.5): 54%
P(BTTS): 63%
Modal score: 1–1 11.5%

Lokomotiv vs FC Orenburg prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Lokomotiv v FC Orenburg: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Lokomotiv v FC Orenburg are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (8 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Lokomotiv (home)	1.73	1.04	0.86	1.55
FC Orenburg (away)	1.62	0.88	0.66	0.94

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.73 × 1.04 × 0.86 ≈ 1.55

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.49	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.93	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.83	30%
Blended total λ	2.87	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.62, λ_away = 1.25

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Lokomotiv λ = 1.62

019.7%

132.0%

226.0%

314.1%

45.7%

5+2.5%

FC Orenburg λ = 1.25

028.6%

135.8%

222.4%

39.3%

42.9%

5+0.9%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Lok \ FC 012345+

05.67.14.41.80.6·

19.2117.23.00.9·

27.49.35.82.40.8·

34.05.03.11.3··

41.62.01.30.5··

5+0.70.90.6···

Σ home-win cells: 46.1%
Σ draw cells: 24.4%
Σ away-win cells: 29.5%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 11.5%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Lokomotiv	50.7%	51.0%	43.6%	47.9%
X Draw	26.9%	17.0%	26.0%	20.8%
2 FC Orenburg	22.4%	32.0%	30.4%	31.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Lokomotiv	47.9%	2.09	2.13	46.9%	+2.1%
X · Draw	20.8%	4.82	3.58	27.9%	-25.7%
2 · FC Orenburg	31.3%	3.19	3.06	32.7%	-4.2%
Double chance
1X	68.7%	1.46	1.34	74.6%	-8.0%
X2	52.1%	1.92	1.66	60.2%	-13.5%
12	79.2%	1.26	1.26	79.4%	-0.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Lokomotiv	60.5%	1.65	–	–	–
DNB FC Orenburg	39.5%	2.53	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	76.8%	1.30	1.20	83.3%	-7.8%
Under 1.5	23.2%	4.31	3.70	27.0%	-14.2%
Over 2.5	54.3%	1.84	1.74	57.5%	-5.6%
Under 2.5	45.7%	2.19	2.02	49.5%	-7.6%
Over 3.5	32.7%	3.05	2.74	36.5%	-10.3%
Under 3.5	67.3%	1.49	1.35	74.1%	-9.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	62.8%	1.59	1.61	62.1%	+1.2%
BTTS no	37.2%	2.69	2.15	46.5%	-20.1%
Half-time
HT 1	34.9%	2.87	–	–	–
HT X	40.5%	2.47	–	–	–
HT 2	24.7%	4.05	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability62.8%

Fair odds1.59

Best odds1.61

EV per unit+1.2%

EV = 0.628 × 1.61 − 1 = +0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.019 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Lokomotiv	FC Orenburg
Sequence	DLWDLL	DLDDDD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	0-5-1
Points per match	0.83	0.83
Goals for / match	0.83	0.67
Goals against / match	1.17	0.83
Over 2.5	33%	17%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	33%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Lokomotiv 48%, draw 21%, FC Orenburg 31%.

Form

Sequence for Lokomotiv: D L W D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Krylia Sovetov. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.

Sequence for FC Orenburg: D L D D D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to FC Krasnodar. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.

Head to head

Previous 2: Lokomotiv 1, FC Orenburg 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): FC Orenburg 1–1 Lokomotiv. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Lokomotiv 1.62 · FC Orenburg 1.25 · total 2.87. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 63%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.61 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Lokomotiv 2–1 FC Orenburg. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.