- λ home
- 2.36
- λ away
- 1.13
- Σλ total
- 3.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.6%
Sturm Graz vs Floridsdorfer AC prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sturm Graz v Floridsdorfer AC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Sturm Graz v Floridsdorfer AC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.60 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.41 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.36, λaway = 1.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sturm Graz | – | 63.0% | 65.5% | 64.0% |
| X Draw | – | 21.0% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| 2 Floridsdorfer AC | – | 16.0% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sturm Graz | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -11.6% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -1.1% | |
| 2 · Floridsdorfer AC | 16.2% | 6.18 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -11.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -7.8% | |
| X2 | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -1.1% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -10.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sturm Graz | 79.8% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Floridsdorfer AC | 20.2% | 4.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.35 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -9.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.4% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.2% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.671 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.061 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sturm Graz | Floridsdorfer AC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWLD | WLDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sturm Graz at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Sturm Graz, last six: L D W W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–3 away at Red Bull Salzburg. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Floridsdorfer AC: W L D W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–0 at home to FC Liefering. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sturm Graz 2.36 · Floridsdorfer AC 1.13 · total 3.50. High total: over 2.5 67%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Sturm Graz 2–1 Floridsdorfer AC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FC Ingolstadt 041Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sturm Graz vs Floridsdorfer AC?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sturm Graz v Floridsdorfer AC probabilities?
Sturm Graz win 64%, draw 20%, Floridsdorfer AC win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Sturm Graz vs Floridsdorfer AC?
Sturm Graz 2–1 Floridsdorfer AC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sturm Graz vs Floridsdorfer AC?
Sturm Graz 2.36, Floridsdorfer AC 1.13 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Sturm Graz vs Floridsdorfer AC?
Friday 2 October 2026, 12:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.