Friendlies Clubs Fri 2 Oct 2026 · Arena Zabrze Full time

Gornik Zabrze

WWWWD

0–2

Half-time 0–2

Odra Opole

DWDLL

72%P(1)20%P(X)8%P(2)

λ home: 1.94
λ away: 0.49
Σλ total: 2.43
P(over 2.5): 44%
P(BTTS): 52%
Modal score: 1–0 17.1%

Gornik Zabrze vs Odra Opole prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Gornik Zabrze v Odra Opole: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Gornik Zabrze v Odra Opole are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Gornik Zabrze (home)	1.73	0.89	0.86	1.33
Odra Opole (away)	1.62	0.85	0.80	1.09

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.73 × 0.89 × 0.86 ≈ 1.33

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.42	64%
Statistical xG feed	2.43	36%
Blended total λ	2.43	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.94, λ_away = 0.49

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Gornik Zabrze λ = 1.94

014.4%

127.9%

227.0%

317.5%

48.5%

5+4.7%

Odra Opole λ = 0.49

061.1%

130.1%

27.4%

31.2%

40.1%

5+0.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Gor \ Odr012345+

08.84.31.1···

1178.42.1···

2178.12.0···

3115.31.3···

45.22.50.6···

5+2.91.4····

Σ home-win cells: 72.1%
Σ draw cells: 19.4%
Σ away-win cells: 8.4%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 17.1%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Gornik Zabrze	41.2%	74.0%	69.2%	72.0%
X Draw	28.7%	21.0%	18.0%	19.7%
2 Odra Opole	30.1%	5.0%	12.8%	8.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Gornik Zabrze	72.0%	1.39	1.30	76.9%	-6.4%
X · Draw	19.7%	5.07	5.00	20.0%	-1.3%
2 · Odra Opole	8.3%	12.06	7.00	14.3%	-41.9%
Double chance
1X	91.7%	1.09	1.08	92.6%	-1.0%
X2	28.0%	3.57	3.25	30.8%	-8.9%
12	80.3%	1.25	1.15	87.0%	-7.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Gornik Zabrze	89.7%	1.12	–	–	–
DNB Odra Opole	10.3%	9.68	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	69.8%	1.43	–	–	–
Under 1.5	30.2%	3.31	–	–	–
Over 2.5	43.8%	2.28	–	–	–
Under 2.5	56.2%	1.78	–	–	–
Over 3.5	22.8%	4.39	–	–	–
Under 3.5	77.2%	1.29	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	52.4%	1.91	1.65	60.6%	-13.5%
BTTS no	47.6%	2.10	2.10	47.6%	-0.1%
Half-time
HT 1	50.0%	2.00	–	–	–
HT X	41.0%	2.44	–	–	–
HT 2	9.1%	11.04	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability52.4%

Fair odds1.91

Best odds1.65

EV per unit-13.5%

EV = 0.524 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.135 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Gornik Zabrze	Odra Opole
Sequence	DWWWWL	LLDWDD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	4-1-1	1-3-2
Points per match	2.17	1.00
Goals for / match	1.50	0.67
Goals against / match	0.83	0.83
Over 2.5	50%	17%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	17%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Gornik Zabrze at 72%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Sequence for Gornik Zabrze: D W W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Motor Lublin. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Odra Opole have one win from their last six (L L D W D D). Latest: 0–1 away at Nieciecza. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Gornik Zabrze 1.94 · Odra Opole 0.49 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 52%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Odra Opole. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.