- λ home
- 1.77
- λ away
- 0.45
- Σλ total
- 2.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 39%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.2%
Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Circulo Deportivo v Sol de Mayo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Circulo Deportivo v Sol de Mayo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.80 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.77, λaway = 0.45
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Circulo Deportivo | – | 66.0% | 77.9% | 71.0% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| 2 Sol de Mayo | – | 14.0% | 4.8% | 10.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.098 → 9.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Circulo Deportivo | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -17.0% | |
| X · Draw | 18.9% | 5.29 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -0.8% | |
| 2 · Sol de Mayo | 10.1% | 9.87 | 19.00 | 5.3% | +92.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.9% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +16.1% | |
| 12 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -10.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Circulo Deportivo | 87.5% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sol de Mayo | 12.5% | 8.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -10.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.3% | 3.19 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +6.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -14.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -20.9% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 39.1% | 2.56 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +46.5% | |
| BTTS no | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -23.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.3% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 8.9% | 11.18 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.774 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Circulo Deportivo | Sol de Mayo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLD | LLLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Circulo Deportivo 71% to win. Standings: Circulo Deportivo 37th on 13, Sol de Mayo 28th on 18.
Form
Circulo Deportivo have two wins from their last six (W L W L L D). Latest: 2–0 at home to Germinal de Rawson. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Sol de Mayo have one win from their last six (L L L L L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Costa Brava. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Head to head
Previous 2: Circulo Deportivo 2, Sol de Mayo 0, drawn 0, 3.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Circulo Deportivo 2–1 Sol de Mayo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Circulo Deportivo 1.77 · Sol de Mayo 0.45 · total 2.22. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 39%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 77%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.29. Most probable score: Circulo Deportivo 1–0 Sol de Mayo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Sep 2026Circulo Deportivo2–1Sol de Mayo
- 12 Jul 2026Circulo Deportivo3–1Sol de Mayo
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 77, priced around 1.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Circulo Deportivo v Sol de Mayo probabilities?
Circulo Deportivo win 71%, draw 19%, Sol de Mayo win 10%.
What is the most probable score for Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
Circulo Deportivo 1–0 Sol de Mayo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
Circulo Deportivo 1.77, Sol de Mayo 0.45 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 39%.
What time is Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
Sunday 27 September 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Estadio El Fortin – Torneo Federal A.