- λ home
- 1.64
- λ away
- 0.60
- Σλ total
- 2.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 38%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.5%
Atenas vs San Martin Formosa prediction & xG model: Atenas to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Atenas v San Martin Formosa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAtenas to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Atenas v San Martin Formosa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atenas (home) | 1.20 | 1.33 | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| San Martin Formosa (away) | 0.71 | 1.23 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.33 × 0.92 ≈ 1.48
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.48 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.64, λaway = 0.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Atenas | 47.4% | 75.0% | 47.0% | 63.3% |
| X Draw | 27.5% | 18.0% | 29.9% | 23.0% |
| 2 San Martin Formosa | 25.1% | 7.0% | 23.0% | 13.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Atenas pick | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +20.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.34 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -31.0% | |
| 2 · San Martin Formosa | 13.7% | 7.28 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -46.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.3% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +1.8% | |
| X2 | 36.7% | 2.72 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -36.4% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Atenas | 82.2% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB San Martin Formosa | 17.8% | 5.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 36.0% | 2.77 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -9.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38.1% | 2.62 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -4.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.7% | 5.07 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -11.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +13.5% | |
| BTTS no | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -22.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.3% | 8.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.633 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.208 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.229 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Atenas | San Martin Formosa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWDW | DWLWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Atenas at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Atenas 18th on 23, San Martin Formosa 4th on 30.
Form
Atenas, last six: L W L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Huracan Las Heras. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for San Martin Formosa: D W L W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Bartolomé Mitre. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Atenas 1.64 · San Martin Formosa 0.60 · total 2.24. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 38%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Atenas to win, probability 63%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Atenas 1–0 San Martin Formosa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Atenas vs San Martin Formosa?
The Model pick is Atenas to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Atenas v San Martin Formosa probabilities?
Atenas win 63%, draw 23%, San Martin Formosa win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Atenas vs San Martin Formosa?
Atenas 1–0 San Martin Formosa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Atenas vs San Martin Formosa?
Atenas 1.64, San Martin Formosa 0.60 – over 2.5 at 38%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Atenas vs San Martin Formosa?
Sunday 27 September 2026, 23:30 WAT, at Estadio 9 de Julio – Torneo Federal A.