- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 0.32
- Σλ total
- 1.71
- P(over 2.5)
- 29%
- P(BTTS)
- 37%
- Modal score
- 1–0 25.1%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Olimpo Bahia Blanca v Gimnasia Chivilcoy: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Olimpo Bahia Blanca v Gimnasia Chivilcoy are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpo Bahia Blanca (home) | 1.20 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 0.96 |
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy (away) | 0.71 | 0.97 | 0.66 | 0.46 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.03 × 0.78 ≈ 0.96
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.30 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.05 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.71 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 0.32
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 25.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 45.5% | 67.0% | 67.1% | 67.0% |
| X Draw | 38.0% | 19.0% | 25.5% | 21.7% |
| 2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 16.5% | 14.0% | 7.4% | 11.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -10.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.60 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -24.0% | |
| 2 · Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 11.2% | 8.89 | 12.00 | 8.3% | +34.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.8% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 3.60 | 27.8% | +18.7% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -8.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 85.6% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 14.4% | 6.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -12.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +0.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29.1% | 3.43 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -19.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -0.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13.2% | 7.58 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -27.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -2.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 37.0% | 2.70 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +48.2% | |
| BTTS no | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -23.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 51.3% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 7.5% | 13.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.709 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.008 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | Gimnasia Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLWDW | DWWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 67%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1st on 31, Gimnasia Chivilcoy 6th on 27.
Form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca have two wins from their last six (D D L W D W). Latest: 1–1 away at Alvarado. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy, last six: D W W W D L – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Douglas Haig. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.39 · Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0.32 · total 1.71. Low total: under 2.5 71%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 71%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.41. Most probable score: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 71, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Olimpo Bahia Blanca v Gimnasia Chivilcoy probabilities?
Olimpo Bahia Blanca win 67%, draw 22%, Gimnasia Chivilcoy win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–0 Gimnasia Chivilcoy is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.39, Gimnasia Chivilcoy 0.32 – over 2.5 at 29%, BTTS at 37%.
What time is Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Sunday 27 September 2026, 19:30 WAT, at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti – Torneo Federal A.