- λ home
- 2.43
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 3.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 2–0 9.7%
Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (38 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos (home) | 1.66 | 1.57 | 0.66 | 1.71 |
| Borac Banja Luka (away) | 1.38 | 1.42 | 0.51 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.57 × 0.66 ≈ 1.71
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.71 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.42 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.43, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Panathinaikos | 53.1% | 64.0% | 76.6% | 69.3% |
| X Draw | 25.2% | 18.0% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| 2 Borac Banja Luka | 21.7% | 18.0% | 7.8% | 13.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.070 → 7.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Panathinaikos | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -15.4% | |
| X · Draw | 17.0% | 5.89 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +1.9% | |
| 2 · Borac Banja Luka | 13.7% | 7.29 | 12.00 | 8.3% | +64.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.3% | 1.16 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -9.4% | |
| X2 | 30.7% | 3.26 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +22.8% | |
| 12 | 83.0% | 1.20 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Panathinaikos | 83.5% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Borac Banja Luka | 16.5% | 6.05 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.5% | 6.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.8% | 1.73 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +18.4% | |
| BTTS no | 42.2% | 2.37 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -26.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.2% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.8% | 2.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.9% | 6.70 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.578 × 2.05 − 1 = +0.184 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.176 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Panathinaikos | Borac Banja Luka |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWWW | WWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Panathinaikos at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Panathinaikos 2nd on 9, Borac Banja Luka 21st on 3.
Form
Panathinaikos, last six: L W W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Olympiakos Piraeus. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Borac Banja Luka have five wins from their last six (W W W W L W). Latest: 2–0 at home to BSK Banja Luka. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Panathinaikos 2.43 · Borac Banja Luka 0.99 · total 3.42. High total: over 2.5 66%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 2.05 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Panathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja Luka. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 2.05 by the bookmakers.
What are the Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka probabilities?
Panathinaikos win 69%, draw 17%, Borac Banja Luka win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka?
Panathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja Luka is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka?
Panathinaikos 2.43, Borac Banja Luka 0.99 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Spiros Louis Olympic Stadium – UEFA Europa Conference League.