- λ home
- 1.08
- λ away
- 2.42
- Σλ total
- 3.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.5%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland prediction & xG model: FC Midtjylland to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Midtjylland to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 41 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë (home) | 1.66 | 1.49 | 0.68 | 1.67 |
| FC Midtjylland (away) | 1.38 | 1.66 | 0.67 | 1.53 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.49 × 0.68 ≈ 1.67
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.20 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.08, λaway = 2.42
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 66.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 40.7% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 14.6% |
| X Draw | 24.4% | 16.0% | 23.2% | 19.0% |
| 2 FC Midtjylland | 34.9% | 71.0% | 59.9% | 66.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 14.6% | 6.84 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -19.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.26 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -23.9% | |
| 2 · FC Midtjylland pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.55 | 64.5% | +2.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -22.6% | |
| X2 | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -2.7% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 18.1% | 5.53 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Midtjylland | 81.9% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -15.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.3% | 6.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.8% | 2.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.051 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWD | WDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 3.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Midtjylland favoured on the road at 66% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 26th on 2, FC Midtjylland 34th on 1.
Form
Sequence for Egnatia Rrogozhinë: W W L W W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Laci. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
FC Midtjylland, last six: W D W W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to FC Copenhagen. 3.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.08 · FC Midtjylland 2.42 · total 3.50. High total: over 2.5 68%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Midtjylland to win, probability 66%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–2 FC Midtjylland. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland?
The Model pick is FC Midtjylland to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland probabilities?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 15%, draw 19%, FC Midtjylland win 66%.
What is the most probable score for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–2 FC Midtjylland is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.08, FC Midtjylland 2.42 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Air Albania – UEFA Europa Conference League.