- λ home
- 2.02
- λ away
- 0.73
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 2–0 13.0%
Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (42 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby AIF (home) | 1.66 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 1.10 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes (away) | 1.38 | 1.24 | 0.76 | 1.30 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.92 × 0.72 ≈ 1.10
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.39 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.02, λaway = 0.73
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mjallby AIF | 30.8% | 68.0% | 69.8% | 68.7% |
| X Draw | 29.0% | 16.0% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| 2 Inter Club d'Escaldes | 40.2% | 16.0% | 10.9% | 13.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mjallby AIF | 68.7% | 1.45 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.6% | |
| X · Draw | 17.4% | 5.75 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -16.5% | |
| 2 · Inter Club d'Escaldes | 13.9% | 7.21 | 8.50 | 11.8% | +17.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -7.0% | |
| X2 | 31.3% | 3.20 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -3.1% | |
| 12 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mjallby AIF | 83.2% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Inter Club d'Escaldes | 16.8% | 5.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +8.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.3% | 2.26 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -20.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.0% | 7.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.557 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.086 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.090 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mjallby AIF | Inter Club d'Escaldes |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLDDL | WLWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Mjallby AIF 69% to win. Standings: Mjallby AIF 9th on 7, Inter Club d'Escaldes 35th on 0.
Form
Sequence for Mjallby AIF: D L L D D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Degerfors IF. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Inter Club d'Escaldes have four wins from their last six (W L W W W D). Latest: 4–0 away at Ordino. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mjallby AIF 2.02 · Inter Club d'Escaldes 0.73 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Mjallby AIF 2–1 Inter Club d'Escaldes. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes probabilities?
Mjallby AIF win 69%, draw 17%, Inter Club d'Escaldes win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes?
Mjallby AIF 2–1 Inter Club d'Escaldes is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes?
Mjallby AIF 2.02, Inter Club d'Escaldes 0.73 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes?
Thursday 15 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Olympia – UEFA Europa Conference League.