Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Ezio Conti Full time

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

DLLL

4–1

Half-time 1–0

San Marino U19

LLD

81%P(1)13%P(X)6%P(2)

λ home: 2.95
λ away: 0.73
Σλ total: 3.68
P(over 2.5): 72%
P(BTTS): 47%
Modal score: 2–0 11.0%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs San Marino U19 prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 v San Marino U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipOver 3.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 v San Marino U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (6 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (home)	1.66	1.05	1.47	–
San Marino U19 (away)	1.38	0.72	1.30	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.05 × 1.47 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.50	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.83	55%
Blended total λ	3.68	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.95, λ_away = 0.73

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 λ = 2.95

05.2%

115.5%

222.8%

322.4%

416.5%

5+17.6%

San Marino U19 λ = 0.73

048.1%

135.2%

212.9%

33.1%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Bos \ San012345+

02.51.80.7···

17.45.42.0···

2118.02.90.7··

3117.92.90.7··

47.95.82.10.5··

5+8.56.22.30.6··

Σ home-win cells: 82.0%
Σ draw cells: 11.7%
Σ away-win cells: 6.3%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 11.0%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19	–	75.0%	90.2%	81.4%
X Draw	–	17.0%	7.1%	12.9%
2 San Marino U19	–	8.0%	2.7%	5.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Bosnia-Herzegovina U19	81.4%	1.23	1.03	97.1%	-16.2%
X · Draw	12.9%	7.78	13.00	7.7%	+67.2%
2 · San Marino U19	5.8%	17.38	35.00	2.9%	+101.4%
Double chance
1X	94.2%	1.06	–	–	–
X2	18.6%	5.37	9.40	10.6%	+75.0%
12	87.1%	1.15	–	–	–
Draw no bet
DNB Bosnia-Herzegovina U19	93.4%	1.07	–	–	–
DNB San Marino U19	6.6%	15.14	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	87.7%	1.14	1.04	96.2%	-8.8%
Under 1.5	12.3%	8.13	7.10	14.1%	-12.7%
Over 2.5	72.3%	1.38	1.23	81.3%	-11.0%
Under 2.5	27.7%	3.61	3.42	29.2%	-5.3%
Over 3.5 pick	52.9%	1.89	1.68	59.5%	-11.1%
Under 3.5	47.1%	2.12	2.11	47.4%	-0.6%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	47.0%	2.13	2.98	33.6%	+40.1%
BTTS no	53.0%	1.89	1.33	75.2%	-29.5%
Half-time
HT 1	61.8%	1.62	–	–	–
HT X	29.1%	3.44	–	–	–
HT 2	9.1%	10.96	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 3.5 goals

Probability52.9%

Fair odds1.89

Best odds1.68

EV per unit-11.1%

EV = 0.529 × 1.68 − 1 = -0.111 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 4 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Bosnia-Herzegovina U19	San Marino U19
Sequence	LLLD	DLL
Matches	4	3
W-D-L	0-1-3	0-1-2
Points per match	0.25	0.33
Goals for / match	0.50	0.67
Goals against / match	4.00	3.33
Over 2.5	75%	67%
BTTS	50%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	50%	67%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at 81%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Sequence for Bosnia-Herzegovina U19: L L L D, so zero victories in four. Latest: 1–5 away at Poland U19 W. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.

Sequence for San Marino U19: D L L, so zero victories in three. Latest: 0–0 at home to Latvia U19. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2.95 · San Marino U19 0.73 · total 3.68. High total: over 2.5 72%, BTTS 47%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.68 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 4–0 San Marino U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.