Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Albert Bartlett Stadium Full time

Belgium U19

DWLDW

2–0

Half-time 0–0

Kosovo U19

73%P(1)17%P(X)9%P(2)

λ home: 2.87
λ away: 1.04
Σλ total: 3.91
P(over 2.5): 72%
P(BTTS): 60%
Modal score: 2–1 8.6%

Belgium U19 vs Kosovo U19 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Belgium U19 v Kosovo U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Belgium U19 v Kosovo U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (7 and 2 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Belgium U19 (home)	1.66	0.96	0.97	–
Kosovo U19 (away)	1.38	0.75	0.59	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.96 × 0.97 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	4.33	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.56	55%
Blended total λ	3.91	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.87, λ_away = 1.04

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Belgium U19 λ = 2.87

05.7%

116.3%

223.4%

322.3%

416.0%

5+16.3%

Kosovo U19 λ = 1.04

035.3%

136.8%

219.2%

36.7%

41.7%

5+0.4%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Bel \ Kos012345+

02.02.11.1···

15.76.03.11.1··

28.28.64.51.6··

37.98.24.31.5··

45.75.93.11.1··

5+5.86.03.11.1··

Σ home-win cells: 74.9%
Σ draw cells: 14.3%
Σ away-win cells: 10.8%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 8.6%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Belgium U19	–	68.0%	80.6%	73.3%
X Draw	–	21.0%	12.5%	17.4%
2 Kosovo U19	–	11.0%	6.9%	9.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.079 → 7.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Belgium U19	73.3%	1.36	1.15	87.0%	-15.7%
X · Draw	17.4%	5.73	7.40	13.5%	+29.1%
2 · Kosovo U19	9.3%	10.79	13.50	7.4%	+25.1%
Double chance
1X	90.7%	1.10	–	–	–
X2	26.7%	3.74	4.85	20.6%	+29.5%
12	82.6%	1.21	1.06	94.3%	-12.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Belgium U19	88.8%	1.13	–	–	–
DNB Kosovo U19	11.2%	8.91	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	87.8%	1.14	1.06	94.3%	-6.9%
Under 1.5	12.2%	8.22	6.25	16.0%	-24.0%
Over 2.5	71.9%	1.39	1.31	76.3%	-5.8%
Under 2.5	28.1%	3.56	2.92	34.2%	-18.1%
Over 3.5	52.0%	1.92	1.90	52.6%	-1.1%
Under 3.5	48.0%	2.09	1.84	54.3%	-11.8%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	60.2%	1.66	1.89	52.9%	+13.8%
BTTS no	39.8%	2.51	1.79	55.9%	-28.8%
Half-time
HT 1	56.6%	1.77	–	–	–
HT X	29.9%	3.34	–	–	–
HT 2	13.5%	7.41	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability60.2%

Fair odds1.66

Best odds1.89

EV per unit+13.8%

EV = 0.602 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.138 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.155 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 5 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Belgium U19	Kosovo U19
Sequence	WDLWD
Matches	5	–
W-D-L	2-2-1	–
Points per match	1.60	–
Goals for / match	0.80	–
Goals against / match	0.60	–
Over 2.5	20%	–
BTTS	40%	–
Clean sheets	60%	–
Failed to score	20%	–

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Belgium U19 73% to win.

Form

Sequence for Belgium U19: W D L W D, so two victories in five. Latest: 1–0 away at England U19. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Belgium U19 2.87 · Kosovo U19 1.04 · total 3.91. Goals expected – 72% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Belgium U19 2–1 Kosovo U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.