Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Sportschule Lindabrunn Full time

Slovenia U19

LLW

1–4

Half-time 1–1

England U19

WWWWL

14%P(1)14%P(X)73%P(2)

λ home: 1.04
λ away: 2.65
Σλ total: 3.70
P(over 2.5): 73%
P(BTTS): 56%
Modal score: 1–2 9.1%

Slovenia U19 vs England U19 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Slovenia U19 v England U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–4
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Slovenia U19 v England U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Slovenia U19 (home)	1.66	0.82	0.67	–
England U19 (away)	1.38	1.37	1.55	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.82 × 0.67 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.50	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.86	55%
Blended total λ	3.70	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.04, λ_away = 2.65

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Slovenia U19 λ = 1.04

035.2%

136.8%

219.2%

36.7%

41.7%

5+0.4%

England U19 λ = 2.65

07.0%

118.7%

224.8%

321.9%

414.5%

5+13.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Slo \ Eng012345+

02.56.68.77.75.14.6

12.66.99.18.15.34.8

21.43.64.84.22.82.5

3·1.21.71.51.00.9

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 12.5%
Σ draw cells: 15.9%
Σ away-win cells: 71.6%
Most probable score: 1–2 · 9.1%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Slovenia U19	–	20.0%	4.7%	13.6%
X Draw	–	17.0%	9.3%	13.8%
2 England U19	–	63.0%	86.0%	72.7%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Slovenia U19	13.6%	7.37	19.75	5.1%	+168.1%
X · Draw	13.8%	7.27	10.00	10.0%	+37.6%
2 · England U19	72.7%	1.38	1.08	92.6%	-21.5%
Double chance
1X	27.3%	3.66	6.70	14.9%	+83.2%
X2	86.4%	1.16	–	–	–
12	86.2%	1.16	1.03	97.1%	-11.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Slovenia U19	15.7%	6.35	–	–	–
DNB England U19	84.3%	1.19	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	88.0%	1.14	1.03	97.1%	-9.4%
Under 1.5	12.0%	8.32	7.30	13.7%	-12.3%
Over 2.5	72.7%	1.38	1.22	82.0%	-11.3%
Under 2.5	27.3%	3.66	3.48	28.7%	-5.0%
Over 3.5	53.1%	1.88	1.68	59.5%	-10.8%
Under 3.5	46.9%	2.13	2.11	47.4%	-1.0%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	56.0%	1.78	2.05	48.8%	+14.9%
BTTS no	44.0%	2.27	1.67	59.9%	-26.6%
Half-time
HT 1	14.6%	6.87	–	–	–
HT X	31.7%	3.15	–	–	–
HT 2	53.7%	1.86	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability56.0%

Fair odds1.78

Best odds2.05

EV per unit+14.9%

EV = 0.560 × 2.05 − 1 = +0.149 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.142 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Slovenia U19	England U19
Sequence	WLL	LWWWWW
Matches	3	6
W-D-L	1-0-2	5-0-1
Points per match	1.00	2.50
Goals for / match	0.67	2.00
Goals against / match	2.00	0.50
Over 2.5	67%	50%
BTTS	33%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	67%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: England U19 73%, Slovenia U19 14%. Standings: Slovenia U19 4th on 0, England U19 2nd on 6.

Form

Slovenia U19, last three: W L L – one win in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Faroe Islands U19. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.

Sequence for England U19: L W W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Belgium U19. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Slovenia U19 1.04 · England U19 2.65 · total 3.70. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 2.05 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Slovenia U19 1–2 England U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.