Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Stadio Bruno Recchioni Full time

Ukraine U19

WWWLW

3–2

Half-time 1–2

Israel U19

DWW

39%P(1)21%P(X)39%P(2)

λ home: 1.47
λ away: 1.47
Σλ total: 2.94
P(over 2.5): 53%
P(BTTS): 59%
Modal score: 1–1 11.4%

Ukraine U19 vs Israel U19 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Ukraine U19 v Israel U19: how the Arena called it

Full time: 3–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Ukraine U19 v Israel U19 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (10 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Ukraine U19 (home)	1.66	1.26	0.83	–
Israel U19 (away)	1.38	1.14	0.71	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.26 × 0.83 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.33	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.62	55%
Blended total λ	2.94	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.47, λ_away = 1.47

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Ukraine U19 λ = 1.47

022.9%

133.8%

224.9%

312.2%

44.5%

5+1.7%

Israel U19 λ = 1.47

023.0%

133.8%

224.8%

312.2%

44.5%

5+1.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Ukr \ Isr012345+

05.37.85.72.81.0·

17.8118.44.11.50.6

25.78.46.23.01.1·

32.84.13.01.50.5·

41.01.51.10.5··

5+·0.6····

Σ home-win cells: 37.8%
Σ draw cells: 24.6%
Σ away-win cells: 37.7%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 11.4%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Ukraine U19	–	39.0%	39.8%	39.3%
X Draw	–	17.0%	27.5%	21.4%
2 Israel U19	–	44.0%	32.7%	39.2%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.074 → 7.4% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Ukraine U19	39.3%	2.54	2.34	42.7%	-8.0%
X · Draw	21.4%	4.67	3.38	29.6%	-27.6%
2 · Israel U19	39.2%	2.55	2.85	35.1%	+11.8%
Double chance
1X	60.8%	1.65	1.39	71.9%	-15.5%
X2	60.7%	1.65	1.55	64.5%	-6.0%
12	78.6%	1.27	1.28	78.1%	+0.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Ukraine U19	50.1%	2.00	–	–	–
DNB Israel U19	49.9%	2.00	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	75.5%	1.32	1.26	79.4%	-4.9%
Under 1.5	24.5%	4.08	3.20	31.3%	-21.5%
Over 2.5	52.5%	1.90	1.92	52.1%	+0.8%
Under 2.5	47.5%	2.11	1.82	54.9%	-13.6%
Over 3.5	31.1%	3.21	3.20	31.3%	-0.4%
Under 3.5	68.9%	1.45	1.26	79.4%	-13.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	58.7%	1.70	1.71	58.5%	+0.4%
BTTS no	41.3%	2.42	1.99	50.3%	-17.8%
Half-time
HT 1	30.0%	3.34	–	–	–
HT X	40.1%	2.49	–	–	–
HT 2	29.9%	3.34	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability58.7%

Fair odds1.70

Best odds1.71

EV per unit+0.4%

EV = 0.587 × 1.71 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.006 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Ukraine U19	Israel U19
Sequence	WLWWWD	WWD
Matches	6	3
W-D-L	4-1-1	2-1-0
Points per match	2.17	2.33
Goals for / match	1.67	1.33
Goals against / match	0.83	0.33
Over 2.5	50%	0%
BTTS	67%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	67%
Failed to score	0%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 21 / 39% for home, draw, away.

Form

Ukraine U19 have four wins from their last six (W L W W W D). Latest: 2–0 away at Scotland U19. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.

Israel U19, last three: W W D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Montenegro U19. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Ukraine U19 1.47 · Israel U19 1.47 · total 2.94. High total: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 59%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.71 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Ukraine U19 2–1 Israel U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.