- λ home
- 1.03
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 1.84
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 41%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.2%
Tusker vs Shabana prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Tusker 46% · draw 19% · Shabana 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Tusker v Shabana: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Tusker v Shabana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.13 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 1.84 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.03, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 32.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tusker | – | 48.0% | 43.1% | 45.9% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 30.9% | 19.3% |
| 2 Shabana | – | 41.0% | 26.1% | 34.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tusker | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -4.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.17 | 2.89 | 34.6% | -44.1% | |
| 2 · Shabana | 34.7% | 2.88 | 3.42 | 29.2% | +18.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -21.0% | |
| X2 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -15.1% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tusker | 56.9% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Shabana | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -12.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -1.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -19.4% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -4.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15.0% | 6.65 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -26.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -5.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -11.7% | |
| BTTS no | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -6.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.3% | 3.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.8% | 4.82 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.680 × 1.41 − 1 = -0.041 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tusker | Shabana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLWW | WDDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tusker ahead at 46%, against 35% for Shabana and 19% for the draw. Standings: Tusker 11th on 6, Shabana 5th on 9.
Form
Tusker, last six: L L D L W W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Bandari. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Shabana, last six: W D D D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Mombasa Elite. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Shabana 1–0 Tusker. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tusker 1.03 · Shabana 0.82 · total 1.84. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.41 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Tusker 1–0 Shabana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 21 Feb 2026Shabana1–0Tusker
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tusker vs Shabana?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.41 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tusker v Shabana probabilities?
Tusker win 46%, draw 19%, Shabana win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Tusker vs Shabana?
Tusker 1–0 Shabana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tusker vs Shabana?
Tusker 1.03, Shabana 0.82 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 41%.
What time is Tusker vs Shabana?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – FKF Premier League.