- λ home
- 1.21
- λ away
- 1.76
- Σλ total
- 2.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.9%
3K vs GOR Mahia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
3K v GOR Mahia: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for 3K v GOR Mahia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3K (home) | 1.17 | 1.09 | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| GOR Mahia (away) | 0.88 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 1.19 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.17 × 1.09 × 0.78 ≈ 1.00
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.19 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 5.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.21, λaway = 1.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 26.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 50.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 3K | 29.9% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 19.8% |
| X Draw | 30.6% | 15.0% | 24.7% | 24.5% |
| 2 GOR Mahia | 39.5% | 72.0% | 60.2% | 55.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · 3K | 19.8% | 5.06 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +18.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3.65 | 27.4% | -10.5% | |
| 2 · GOR Mahia | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -16.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +1.8% | |
| X2 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -10.9% | |
| 12 | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB 3K | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| DNB GOR Mahia | 73.8% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 2.07 | 48.3% | +4.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -19.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.4% | 1.87 | 2.34 | 42.7% | +24.9% | |
| BTTS no | 46.6% | 2.14 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -30.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.8% | 4.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.534 × 2.34 − 1 = +0.249 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.185 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | 3K | GOR Mahia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWDDW | DWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 56% against 20%. Standings: 3K 8th on 9, GOR Mahia 1st on 13.
Form
3K have two wins from their last six (D L W D D W). Latest: 0–0 at home to AFC Leopards. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for GOR Mahia: D W W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Nairobi United. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG 3K 1.21 · GOR Mahia 1.76 · total 2.96. High total: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 2.34 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: 3K 1–2 GOR Mahia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  APS Bomet | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Migori Youth | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Bandari | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Ulinzi Stars | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for 3K vs GOR Mahia?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 2.34 by the bookmakers.
What are the 3K v GOR Mahia probabilities?
3K win 20%, draw 25%, GOR Mahia win 56%.
What is the most probable score for 3K vs GOR Mahia?
3K 1–2 GOR Mahia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for 3K vs GOR Mahia?
3K 1.21, GOR Mahia 1.76 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is 3K vs GOR Mahia?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:15 WAT – FKF Premier League.