- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.37
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.1%
Homeboyz vs KCB prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Homeboyz 37% · draw 19% · KCB 44%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Homeboyz v KCB: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Homeboyz v KCB are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.26 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.37 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Homeboyz | – | 38.0% | 34.9% | 36.7% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 30.1% | 19.0% |
| 2 KCB | – | 51.0% | 34.9% | 44.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Homeboyz | 36.7% | 2.72 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -6.4% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.26 | 2.96 | 33.8% | -43.7% | |
| 2 · KCB | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.55 | 39.2% | +12.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -23.1% | |
| X2 | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -12.7% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Homeboyz | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB KCB | 54.7% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -15.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -5.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.0% | 4.76 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -7.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -10.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -7.6% | |
| BTTS no | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -10.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.41 − 1 = -0.065 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Homeboyz | KCB |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDWLD | WWLWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 44% against 37%. Standings: Homeboyz 17th on 5, KCB 2nd on 13.
Form
Sequence for Homeboyz: D L D W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Kenya Police. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for KCB: W W L W D W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to APS Bomet. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): KCB 1–1 Homeboyz. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Homeboyz 1.11 · KCB 1.26 · total 2.37. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.41 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Homeboyz 1–2 KCB. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Apr 2026KCB1–1Homeboyz
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Homeboyz vs KCB?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.41 by the bookmakers.
What are the Homeboyz v KCB probabilities?
Homeboyz win 37%, draw 19%, KCB win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Homeboyz vs KCB?
Homeboyz 1–2 KCB is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Homeboyz vs KCB?
Homeboyz 1.11, KCB 1.26 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Homeboyz vs KCB?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – FKF Premier League.