- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 2.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.3%
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United prediction & xG model: Murang'a SEAL to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Murang'a SEAL 58% · draw 19% · Mathare United 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.29 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Murang'a SEAL | – | 69.0% | 42.4% | 57.8% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 29.2% | 18.6% |
| 2 Mathare United | – | 20.0% | 28.4% | 23.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Murang'a SEAL pick | 57.8% | 1.73 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +21.5% | |
| X · Draw | 18.6% | 5.36 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -43.1% | |
| 2 · Mathare United | 23.5% | 4.25 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -26.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.4% | |
| X2 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -34.6% | |
| 12 | 81.4% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 79.4% | +2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Murang'a SEAL | 71.1% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mathare United | 28.9% | 3.46 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -4.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -20.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.29 | 43.7% | +1.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -14.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4.40 | 22.7% | +3.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -12.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -6.4% | |
| BTTS no | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -11.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.4% | 5.44 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.578 × 2.10 − 1 = +0.215 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.195 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Murang'a SEAL | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWLD | LWLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Murang'a SEAL 58%, draw 19%, Mathare United 24%. Standings: Murang'a SEAL 8th on 8, Mathare United 16th on 5.
Form
Sequence for Murang'a SEAL: D W L W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Ulinzi Stars. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Mathare United have one win from their last six (L W L D L D). Latest: 1–2 at home to Posta Rangers FC. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Murang'a SEAL 1–1 Mathare United. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Murang'a SEAL 1.68 · Mathare United 0.93 · total 2.61. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Selection: Murang'a SEAL to win, probability 58%, odds 2.10 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Murang'a SEAL 1–0 Mathare United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Mar 2026Murang'a SEAL1–1Mathare United
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United?
The Model pick is Murang'a SEAL to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 2.10 by the bookmakers.
What are the Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United probabilities?
Murang'a SEAL win 58%, draw 19%, Mathare United win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United?
Murang'a SEAL 1–0 Mathare United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United?
Murang'a SEAL 1.68, Mathare United 0.93 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – FKF Premier League.